TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e46…7d1f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Cricket at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3959%23 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+32.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$125.45
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+81%+$40.5
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+89.1%+$66.85
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.11
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$54.74
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$66.28
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$21.45
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$97.65
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$75.65
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$109.42
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$58.85
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$43.11
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.59
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.07
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.53
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+98.5%+$95.57
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.36
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$58.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$40.2
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+38%+$75.98
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+35.1%+$8.78
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.25
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealandbacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.