TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,377,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,416,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,377,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x361b…74febacked Over55c1,001,976$552,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449,397.9151032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Under45c624,942$280,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280,907.0333538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c517,747$215,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215,422.684,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over54c454,261$244,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209,925.2264446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under47c425,770$198,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198,652.9942345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Over54c408,219$218,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189,385.258246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7583…4df2backed Over56c381,517$211,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169,728.92040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Under46c329,995$151,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,797.847346.6%34 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Under46c328,000$149,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,244.4615456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Over54c310,215$167,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,864.883354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Under45c289,628$131,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,483.5122348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under45c268,218$119,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,643.5432031.6%101 W · 219 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over54c244,080$131,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,354.192,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61b…8a06backed Over54c218,941$117,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,4875959.3%35 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x996a…e3ccbacked Under46c180,868$82,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,294.91952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under45c176,386$79,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,573.5174752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed Under46c140,508$64,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,733.3417034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked Under44c135,612$60,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,008.197447.3%35 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…73c3backed Over55c125,000$68,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,187.332650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Over56c107,976$59,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,049.2214343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Over54c100,000$54,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,7508521.2%18 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Under45c100,000$44,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,749.9117949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under49c72,715$35,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,286.572,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Under47c70,909$33,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,491.9417852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under36c69,452$24,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,772.4614250%71 W · 71 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under15c57,980$8,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,914.4830626.5%81 W · 225 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed Under46c57,500$26,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,203.5710653.8%57 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under22c52,010$11,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,458.4244539.6%176 W · 269 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over55c51,087$28,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,829.598,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Over56c49,998$27,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,123.989451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Over55c45,059$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,059.143925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Under29c40,454$11,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,919.7420731.4%65 W · 142 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under46c40,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30017842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c37,763$18,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,207.177152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ea…150fbacked Under47c31,816$14,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,820.9219332.1%62 W · 131 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4d…77c6backed Over62c30,000$18,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,3257647.4%36 W · 40 L+13.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+80.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x580d…eb6dbacked Over67c30,000$20,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,974.998063.8%51 W · 29 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Under29c29,550$8,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,473.9910251%52 W · 50 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Over55c27,998$15,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,579.0313959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under49c27,213$13,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,334.2313738.7%53 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under45c26,431$11,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,819.739150.5%46 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf94c…59dcbacked Under44c25,657$11,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,353.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4229…2e67backed Over55c24,429$13,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,932.111154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over56c23,044$12,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,047.862,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Under23c22,793$5,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,178.2817642%74 W · 102 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb225…3d54backed Under23c22,469$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.819525.3%24 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b9…2084backed Under45c22,346$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over46c22,295$10,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,991.5627039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cd…a98dbacked Under45c21,741$9,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,729.141450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Under53c21,533$11,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,495.4314045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed Over47c20,982$9,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,159.16048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over55c20,575$11,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,359.081,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Under45c20,000$9,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,001.2250243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Over53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.7926447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Over55c19,998$11,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,949.1117452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under45c19,393$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,800.2421849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b7aabacked Under45c19,006$8,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,457.618057.5%46 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Over53c19,005$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,004.522157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb451…d7b3backed Under46c18,677$8,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,544.531346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Over48c18,493$8,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,580.4444130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Under45c18,000$8,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,18548441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c17,000$7,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,654.991,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Under46c16,567$7,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,551.5547144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Under45c16,500$7,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,443.7447643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under36c16,063$5,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,730.0137223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Under45c15,739$7,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0436842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Under17c15,700$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.531945.1%144 W · 175 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Under45c15,000$6,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,712.58135.8%29 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under0c15,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.522933.6%77 W · 152 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Over54c15,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9001225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Under34c14,781$4,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.9136235.9%130 W · 232 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under46c14,344$6,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,598.251,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under46c14,156$6,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,511.7628162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under13c14,061$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.141,55952.4%817 W · 742 L+97.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Under46c14,000$6,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,404.926445.1%119 W · 145 L+17.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Under31c13,964$4,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,381.4318543.8%81 W · 104 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Under45c13,600$6,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,11944144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Under39c13,491$5,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,211.5320448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Over53c13,368$7,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,303.8214727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Under40c13,025$5,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,232.6839644.7%177 W · 219 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Under46c13,000$5,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,947.3218837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under39c12,191$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.8326841.8%112 W · 156 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under50c11,940$5,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,932.5541331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Under43c11,926$5,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,076.6543737.8%165 W · 272 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under45c11,723$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.911,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb0…8ee3backed Under45c11,200$5,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,012666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+199.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4433…9d34backed Over66c10,843$7,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.1778835.3%278 W · 510 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c81…98b7backed Under49c10,340$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.742714.8%4 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Under46c10,277$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.6526320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over57c10,175$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400.241,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…7c86backed Over46c10,065$4,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,479.465320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…acefbacked Under46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6004436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed Over55c10,000$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4756943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Over55c10,000$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,47516957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fae…4079backed Under49c10,000$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.876833.8%23 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under44c10,000$4,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.199839.8%39 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Over64c9,674$6,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,517.0232429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2600…ea13backed Under52c9,571$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b51…ad13backed Over54c9,200$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.561560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Over56c8,969$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,968.613663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.