TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spainof Spain, Belgium
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,508,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,148,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,508,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,534 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Belgium26c1,374,064$355,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355,863.362,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Belgium26c1,349,801$348,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348,9419142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Belgium26c777,760$202,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,424.6877152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…7e2ebacked Belgium11c409,612$46,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,447812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-81.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Belgium26c368,815$97,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,547.947433.8%25 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Spain74c336,534$249,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,767.5517452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Spain74c299,999$221,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,999.755967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed Spain74c290,589$215,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,809.174667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Belgium26c265,140$69,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,599.3636250%181 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Spain74c200,306$147,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,580.296524.6%16 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d18…24a6backed Spain75c200,000$149,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0002466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Belgium25c200,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.964748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Spain73c196,000$143,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,919.9615456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x408f…b2f4backed Spain75c192,188$144,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,226.954151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spain76c190,758$144,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,014.18,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Spain75c175,287$131,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,829.533971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Belgium27c126,184$33,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,995.283046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Spain73c120,690$88,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,290.9722139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Spain75c120,500$90,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,426.2513725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Spain73c115,000$83,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,212.4419252.1%100 W · 92 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Spain73c109,955$79,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,962.739345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spain74c108,424$79,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,523.5842345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Belgium27c100,000$27,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,00017840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Spain75c100,000$74,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,50017949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f90…21fabacked Spain74c95,758$70,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,180.754057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Belgium26c94,706$24,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,445.511,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Spain74c90,000$66,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,624.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd532…25efbacked Belgium25c87,129$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed19…b6ffbacked Belgium26c82,134$21,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,438.393650%18 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Belgium25c75,419$18,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,510.051,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Belgium26c75,000$19,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,12533538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4154…e7a8backed Spain74c72,000$53,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,84529633.4%99 W · 197 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed Spain74c70,000$51,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3507740.3%31 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Spain75c66,666$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,666.54153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076b…57afbacked Belgium26c65,115$17,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,011.63545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1396…62b5backed Belgium26c63,840$16,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,602.64540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Belgium26c62,378$15,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,974.5514349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Belgium26c61,579$16,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,164.4620724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Belgium25c58,786$14,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,893.2229952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…45cebacked Spain74c58,290$42,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,309.838856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Spain75c57,841$43,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,460.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Spain74c57,422$42,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,216.7721836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Belgium26c53,802$14,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0488847.7%42 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Spain74c51,147$38,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,058.0640239.8%160 W · 242 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Belgium27c50,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,50022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Spain74c49,995$36,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,173.6513959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Spain75c47,555$35,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,007.6424526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a7…504ebacked Spain74c45,200$33,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,7901241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Spain75c45,000$33,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,4751529.9%15 W · 137 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd599…c994backed Spain75c42,175$31,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,598.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7a4…e371backed Belgium26c40,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2004235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe94…8a3dbacked Belgium26c40,000$10,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x580d…eb6dbacked Spain72c40,000$28,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,099.948063.8%51 W · 29 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Spain75c39,306$29,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,924.813941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Spain74c38,644$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,144.0713036.2%47 W · 83 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Belgium28c38,552$10,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,794.588932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e2…ea88backed Spain74c38,500$28,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,042.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Spain73c36,851$26,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,903.722661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd104…acefbacked Spain74c36,500$27,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,441.254436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ac…d2b1backed Spain75c36,120$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,120.41060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…5dc4backed Spain75c34,566$25,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,771.513522.9%8 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9732…1539backed Belgium25c34,550$8,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,723.972123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Spain74c34,176$25,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,053.5917447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332a…c9a2backed Spain73c33,514$24,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,902.37237.5%27 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Spain72c33,033$23,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,091.0210251%52 W · 50 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Belgium26c33,000$8,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,579.94341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d6…8c9dbacked Spain74c32,559$23,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,628.113748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Belgium26c32,277$8,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,230.633718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab6a…2978backed Spain73c32,000$23,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,719.952352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc1…c13fbacked Belgium26c31,870$8,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,286.321020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Belgium26c30,000$7,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,87534247.7%163 W · 179 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Belgium26c30,000$7,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,674.969642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Belgium25c28,859$7,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,344.365322.6%12 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Belgium26c28,705$7,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,319.6924028.8%69 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked Spain74c28,556$21,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,502.85745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92a…80a7backed Belgium26c28,393$7,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,382.112733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Belgium26c28,000$7,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,266.1550243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked Spain74c27,964$20,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,228.154566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b6…ca29backed Spain73c27,770$20,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,498.732157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Spain73c27,720$20,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,485.154348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Spain74c27,071$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,070.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Belgium26c27,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9548441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffe…86b5backed Spain75c26,673$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,673.172540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b0…23a1backed Spain75c26,630$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.08988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+84%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fb0…7263backed Belgium26c25,602$6,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,720.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Spain75c25,000$18,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3753221.9%7 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Spain73c25,000$18,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,812.56055%33 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Spain73c24,658$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,657.5325336.8%93 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Spain73c24,291$17,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,575.8556541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Spain74c23,994$17,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,122.129916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Spain72c23,554$16,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,640.6310549.5%52 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Spain74c23,500$17,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0101656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Belgium26c22,999$5,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,956.0947144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Belgium18c22,030$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960.8817852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Belgium26c22,000$5,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,676.247643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2149…c8ddbacked Spain75c21,477$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.511225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Belgium29c21,051$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.6914045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f2…2523backed Belgium3c20,619$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.567432.4%24 W · 50 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Belgium24c20,287$4,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,868.994548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd026…ec2fbacked Spain74c20,188$14,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,248.885236.5%19 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.