Spread: Belgium (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d7c173d9e4b66260160aa5cd3e13ec2541a733ff06c4a1168c38241347a1fc

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spainof Belgium, Spain
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $387,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $359,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,740 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdee3…6fe5backed Belgium	5c	34,999$1,838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,838.34	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Belgium	5c	22,373$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,118.65	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Belgium	3c	20,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	264	45.1%119 W · 145 L	+17.5wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Belgium	5c	19,183$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932.57	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Belgium	2c	14,731$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.63	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Belgium	5c	10,886$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.66	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Belgium	5c	10,496$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.51	154	41.6%64 W · 90 L	+12.7wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Belgium	5c	9,472$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.75	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…6561backed Belgium	5c	8,749$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.9	96	33.3%32 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Belgium	6c	8,511$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	250	19.6%49 W · 201 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed Belgium	5c	6,836$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.5	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+112.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Belgium	5c	6,818$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.63	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked Belgium	5c	6,625$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.85	122	6.6%8 W · 114 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed Belgium	3c	4,999$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.97	258	21.3%55 W · 203 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…b180backed Belgium	5c	4,831$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.55	69	29%20 W · 49 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Belgium	6c	4,150$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Belgium	5c	3,636$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Belgium	6c	3,092$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.82	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Belgium	5c	3,067$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	1,019	31.6%322 W · 697 L	-10.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…849bbacked Belgium	5c	3,031$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.79	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+3.9wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Belgium	6c	2,909$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+28%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Belgium	5c	2,802$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.32	1,240	43.7%542 W · 698 L	+13.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ca…1e53backed Belgium	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	113	30.1%34 W · 79 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Belgium	5c	2,225$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.75	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Belgium	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	193	17.1%33 W · 160 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f23…40b4backed Belgium	5c	1,818$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813b…e606backed Belgium	5c	1,800$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4dd…39e4backed Belgium	5c	1,799$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.47	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-6.8wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Belgium	5c	1,788$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.8	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…df81backed Belgium	5c	1,733$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x298a…15b9backed Belgium	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Belgium	5c	1,269$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.47	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Belgium	4c	1,231$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.28	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3f…f863backed Belgium	4c	1,225$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.43	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Belgium	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Belgium	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	180	28.3%51 W · 129 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Belgium	5c	1,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Belgium	3c	999.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14c…f8afbacked Belgium	5c	952.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c2…bfe3backed Belgium	5c	919.37$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.48	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked Belgium	3c	770$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	170	42.4%72 W · 98 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Belgium	5c	639.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.32	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4c…f3bfbacked Belgium	6c	629.75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.64	164	18.9%31 W · 133 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Belgium	5c	599.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Belgium	5c	555$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	76	17.1%13 W · 63 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Belgium	3c	544.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Belgium	5c	529.57$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked Belgium	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f17…c1dbbacked Belgium	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	288	8%23 W · 265 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Belgium	5c	484.03$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x202b…5a7dbacked Belgium	5c	476.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belgium	5c	417.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Belgium	3c	412.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	211	46.9%99 W · 112 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Belgium	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Belgium	3c	388.93$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	177	27.7%49 W · 128 L	-10.3wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Belgium	5c	385.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94a…ea96backed Belgium	5c	380.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	29.8%31 W · 73 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fd…2688backed Belgium	6c	355.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	34.5%19 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c02…c6d2backed Belgium	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f26…bac3backed Belgium	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6912…c24ebacked Belgium	5c	327.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	131	25.2%33 W · 98 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a52…c0e8backed Belgium	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8542…9405backed Belgium	5c	290.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…a12bbacked Belgium	5c	272.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	26.5%22 W · 61 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x529c…210ebacked Belgium	5c	272.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2484…7780backed Belgium	6c	261.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40a1…e17dbacked Belgium	6c	260.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcd…71a0backed Belgium	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebc…833bbacked Belgium	6c	245.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Belgium	5c	230$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa860…b2cfbacked Belgium	5c	218.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	128	47.7%61 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed85…be20backed Belgium	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	88	33%29 W · 59 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Belgium	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	298	13.8%41 W · 257 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6440…aeddbacked Belgium	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+65%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Belgium	14c	150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Belgium (-1.5)this page
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Spain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Spain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-5.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Belgium (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event