Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6890541ab521436a08d0c22798551e10f1504e07576c9ca719cfc2224ad6e69f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37e0…024ebacked Under	50c	27,003$13,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,501.29	107	40.2%43 W · 64 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f97…20debacked Over	50c	6,016$3,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,007.7	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-47%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	50c	5,788$2,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,890.92	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Over	50c	5,782$2,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,891.1	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	52c	2,674$1,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,382.8	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c0…cf74backed Under	55c	2,007$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$907.35	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbb…e8a8backed Under	49c	1,515$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$774.49	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Over	51c	1,328$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.53	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eab…6a7dbacked Over	32c	1,281$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.53	256	43.4%111 W · 145 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f3…3ca0backed Over	50c	1,208$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53d0…1855backed Over	50c	996$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…529cbacked Over	50c	955$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.5	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e6a…681dbacked Over	50c	932$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466	62	33.9%21 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Over	50c	901.1$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.55	89	41.6%37 W · 52 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under	68c	724.87$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.47	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Over	50c	700$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	237	36.3%86 W · 151 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under	51c	671.16$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.32	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	60c	659.22$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.23	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa969…d109backed Over	50c	613$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.5	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…0747backed Over	50c	472$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	14c	456.95$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.06	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	49c	434.84$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.07	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd6…b763backed Over	50c	398.1$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.05	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	40cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x957e…3621backed Over	28c	392.52$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	221	47.1%104 W · 117 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Under	47c	364.24$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.05	185	43.8%81 W · 104 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Over	49c	328.89$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.3	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67c…5047backed Under	61c	311.27$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.27	125	29.6%37 W · 88 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Over	42c	300$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.78	175	33.7%59 W · 116 L	-12.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	31c	300$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.43	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over	51c	296.44$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.19	216	30.1%65 W · 151 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…fc69backed Under	51c	260$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4336…249cbacked Over	50c	260$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	36c	255.18$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.2	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2b…ea2abacked Over	51c	240$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4117…e48fbacked Under	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f9…c239backed Over	50c	200.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a7…78a1backed Under	51c	200.67$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.33	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	246	49.2%121 W · 125 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…fa8dbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	235	54.9%129 W · 106 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	580	49.1%285 W · 295 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	53c	188$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.88	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	32c	150$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	32c	150$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.59	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabad…f40bbacked Under	50c	107.9$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.95	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over	54c	103$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.62	220	58.2%128 W · 92 L	+18.8wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4e1…75b0backed Over	53c	100.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	44cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…05e8backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	158	53.2%84 W · 74 L	+10.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf14b…2b93backed Over	50c	97.12$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa553…789dbacked Over	52c	92.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.35	195	17.9%35 W · 160 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	21c	89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.86	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	59c	64.25$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfe…dba6backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	97	34%33 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6a…c808backed Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Over	51c	55.59$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ab…c326backed Over	43c	46.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…de9bbacked Under	50c	41.28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	52	69.2%36 W · 16 L	+7.0wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa882…e517backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3874…30f2backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	32.4%35 W · 73 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbcb…2941backed Over	50c	38.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed Under	49c	38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.38	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	50c	20.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4698…f0f1backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-21%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	78.4%29 W · 8 L	+9.5wins	+0.26per pick	53cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x872e…7a6bbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	67cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Spain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Spain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)Spain won
Spread: Belgium (-5.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Belgium won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Belgium won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spain vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event