TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,782,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,781,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,782,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 920 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ccf…79fbbacked Yes40c102,800$41,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,268.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…19b8backed Yes37c75,000$27,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,4752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+99.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No67c58,566$39,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,253.651952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+101%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa4…82cfbacked Yes36c50,335$17,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,365.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa872…9931backed Yes35c49,250$17,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,9141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf97e…0034backed Yes41c43,964$18,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,723.651369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes65c40,731$26,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,146.642634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1425…f1a1backed Yes27c39,100$10,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,386.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba10…cf10backed No60c36,000$21,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,456366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d86…ad02backed No60c35,900$21,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,396.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x258f…f004backed No60c30,900$18,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,416.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes56c26,849$14,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,946.52520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bc…d75abacked No64c26,669$17,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,148.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…4378backed No63c26,150$16,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,552.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab0…6c6dbacked No65c24,850$16,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,102.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…ea8ebacked No63c24,450$15,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,476.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b28…b31fbacked No64c24,446$15,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,718.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x969d…edbcbacked No65c24,400$15,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,811.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc8…a70dbacked No63c24,400$15,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,445.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd836…ea78backed Yes80c23,988$19,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,913.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+82.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes28c22,401$6,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,043.835058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7903…e8a1backed No70c20,799$14,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,509.291040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0013…83bebacked Yes27c20,000$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,5802100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+147%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No72c19,166$13,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,743.0240%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x956d…7999backed Yes24c19,100$4,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,458.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+311.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9619…ed6abacked Yes22c19,100$4,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,840.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+348.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No42c18,659$7,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,839.122360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xde26…2de2backed Yes76c15,597$11,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.011741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked No44c13,606$6,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,049616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No40c13,099$5,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,289.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No34c12,910$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.838744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No34c12,189$4,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,083.287240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15e8…9656backed No73c11,200$8,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,131.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No39c11,197$4,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,355.4811124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a719backed No73c10,600$7,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,716.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09c…56dbbacked No73c10,600$7,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,695.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd897…7fbdbacked No25c10,350$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No55c9,435$5,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.391145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4d…d601backed No12c9,000$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…2c27backed No73c8,800$6,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,388.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes42c8,797$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.043636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No42c8,687$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.6514548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes62c8,607$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.342560%15 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No47c8,596$4,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,012.578630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No0c8,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2837…f18abacked No73c8,500$6,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,171250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b1…0a71backed No74c8,500$6,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,32410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No52c8,200$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,304.355320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes68c8,139$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.034544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4eb…c6c3backed No20c8,000$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked No68c7,963$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,425.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d27…5350backed No21c7,569$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.123050%15 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed No35c7,456$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.42236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c7,331$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.57932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes43c6,582$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.93748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2dc…9c9cbacked Yes70c6,347$4,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No40c6,104$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.1417859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes47c5,805$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.413560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11f8…2bd5backed No15c5,159$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.7350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No33c5,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6403666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No23c5,000$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.695343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes27c5,000$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,644.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+55.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac8…c41dbacked No30c4,830$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed No2c4,731$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4d…59e6backed No64c4,672$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c4,598$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.337663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a8…3592backed Yes33c4,575$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No73c4,566$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.23256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No17c4,539$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.125330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c4,400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe149…b66bbacked No46c4,355$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes28c4,313$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.853256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes61c4,279$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.898733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No54c4,201$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.647759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Yes43c4,132$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No37c4,083$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.94938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70f8…2580backed No27c4,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a4…64e1backed Yes74c4,000$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc261…6fbfbacked Yes77c4,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf834…c4cebacked No20c4,000$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No13c4,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No52c3,926$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.996927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd08a…d72abacked No53c3,796$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ce…6e30backed Yes47c3,786$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed Yes65c3,740$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.522552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf2…28d9backed No73c3,733$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No56c3,644$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.492466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes40c3,597$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.741258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No40c3,400$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.386934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8edb…a929backed Yes36c3,400$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes38c3,385$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1887…5ae3backed No47c3,372$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.76837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes56c3,345$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.652544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+181.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db0…74bcbacked Yes63c3,318$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2182100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+215.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No30c3,170$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.493946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4204…d02bbacked Yes20c3,068$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.391492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.2wins+0.59per pick34cpaid+617.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,37012840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No52c3,000$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5663636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No26c2,999$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.725541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27d…8d5bbacked Yes48c2,996$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.