TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$422,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$428,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe79c…c715backed No17c24,984$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1504131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes78c23,388$18,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.264544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…2bd5backed No6c16,500$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…2de2backed No16c16,422$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.811741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No14c15,338$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.45058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked No4c13,214$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No20c12,327$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.5612840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No8c10,000$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.215343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No8c9,932$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.94341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd08a…d72abacked No11c6,856$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No10c6,195$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.1611124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No23c6,003$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.925541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No18c5,413$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.7614548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes78c5,259$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.1615941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No14c5,000$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6754839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2004731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed No24c3,301$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.374938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c3,200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes79c3,100$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6663560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No19c3,073$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.057240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e30…d732backed Yes79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb01…b811backed Yes77c2,703$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde28…a563backed No13c2,692$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.66147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed No9c2,650$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.041618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…0393backed Yes79c2,438$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e3…2c54backed Yes75c2,431$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac8…c41dbacked No17c2,360$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No13c2,346$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.566934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b97…e4f1backed No23c2,232$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.872548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No10c2,074$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.576123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c2,072$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.662061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No21c2,032$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.42917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No32c2,007$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.676927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc701…33c1backed Yes71c2,004$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.881478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No15c1,983$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.318744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…f99fbacked No15c1,888$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.25345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35f9…b6f4backed No13c1,554$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.251921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362e…8983backed No22c1,543$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.431050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19511225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,499$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.27663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes70c1,423$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.171258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dbc…e18abacked Yes72c1,394$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.68887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+76.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3657…0050backed No18c1,317$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No11c1,300$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1435320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2d…7017backed No4c1,256$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed No13c1,228$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.648154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b03…a61dbacked No18c1,222$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.99267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No17c1,200$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6317859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes79c1,099$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8710045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No15c1,076$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7310340.8%42 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a1…d158backed No14c1,029$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c1,022$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.32541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3491…bb86backed No13c1,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.921428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c1,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed No36c861.41$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.592227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x003b…1ebebacked No8c823.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.891450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed No32c800$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No35c788.66$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.825431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No12c781.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No20c717.37$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.454617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…b0abbacked No10c714.07$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c700$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed No15c699.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No17c650.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.715127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No16c624.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No3c604.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed No18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No35c600$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.622846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked No26c580.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed No18c580.09$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.852458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No23c570.1$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.837047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No12c558.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No3c518.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89d…151dbacked No19c517.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c514.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.933495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…d35fbacked No18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee6b…cc03backed No11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e0…bfd9backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…7a96backed No26c464.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.785937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44fc…4d42backed No13c450$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No23c373.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1511145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…55c5backed No18c357.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.01825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd7f…3e85backed No31c349.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-78.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x880e…4637backed No15c340$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2611…bc17backed No27c328.6$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.721513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-73.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6acd…2fa7backed No15c324.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-69%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf77c…73c4backed No20c303.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40d…683ebacked Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2719543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba2f…9b76backed No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5180%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c65…c4debacked No21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8881…e889backed No15c299.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes64c292$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.128733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f19…2c62backed No34c291.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.