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Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$695,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$760,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 369 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd836…ea78backed Yes42c37,684$15,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,879.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+82.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ce…6e30backed Yes18c31,111$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,611.47540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No50c23,737$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,750.2518060%108 W · 72 L+19.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5fa…5b59backed Yes55c20,000$10,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,099.81560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No58c13,764$8,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,008.217545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes53c12,265$6,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,711.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No57c10,652$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,068.677240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6e2…450bbacked No51c10,000$5,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,090911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…2bd5backed No46c8,105$3,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,768.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes9c7,898$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,176.911124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98bf…a586backed Yes24c7,540$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,695.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+183.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes15c6,656$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,668.373020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes28c5,845$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,229.831442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+246.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…7a96backed No58c5,699$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.645937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed Yes35c5,315$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.843330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea0…536fbacked Yes29c4,896$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc916…e32ebacked Yes51c4,888$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.462321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes42c4,863$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.055448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa61a…3d71backed Yes10c4,791$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,293.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d4…41fbbacked No56c4,647$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.332360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes54c4,342$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.63740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked No72c4,225$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.383748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb13…8bb4backed No47c3,946$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…33c1backed Yes52c3,878$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.481478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x55f3…8b12backed Yes8c3,631$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,342.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+529.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb824…dfefbacked Yes10c3,603$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2522100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+2,773.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No68c3,511$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.268744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes34c3,494$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.181258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes43c3,458$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.4714335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No61c3,443$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.925225%13 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No65c3,236$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.696940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed Yes8c3,047$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.511844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No75c3,019$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.315541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…eecfbacked No74c3,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.89520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No43c3,000$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.232665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f420backed Yes20c2,964$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+978.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No28c2,950$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.56127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…6738backed No41c2,800$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed Yes36c2,666$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.666246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes9c2,664$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.783636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b05…6180backed Yes31c2,620$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.581844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c0…de1cbacked No50c2,611$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.741136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0235…9f50backed Yes59c2,603$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef1…2619backed Yes21c2,410$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.62050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d1…ef57backed Yes4c2,356$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.23580%4 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.61per pick19cpaid+1,118.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2121…5f82backed No40c2,339$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.942259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked No62c2,325$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.43135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes9c2,287$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.136114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d76…be58backed Yes57c2,150$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4b…04ebbacked No59c2,100$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked No51c2,044$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.442114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-74.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed Yes46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0803946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No78c2,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5604341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No49c2,000$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9706937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6ac…c69bbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+102.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No66c1,984$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.183438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e33…22febacked Yes51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+361.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db0…74bcbacked Yes21c1,919$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+215.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes4c1,895$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.322544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+181.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4204…d02bbacked Yes3c1,874$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.81492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.2wins+0.59per pick34cpaid+617.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes53c1,863$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+495.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x553a…177fbacked No44c1,837$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.593935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No36c1,770$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.854617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…45cfbacked Yes57c1,769$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked No8c1,768$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac8…c41dbacked No70c1,763$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.411216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,747$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.443283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,734$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.027663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c1,697$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.952442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,674$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.321424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No76c1,666$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.16966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes53c1,620$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.462416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No35c1,614$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.546931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No21c1,600$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.210336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes5c1,586$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.891275%9 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+2,349.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes59c1,564$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.371457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No80c1,550$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.914847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes9c1,523$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.921435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+995.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ec5…9fcabacked No47c1,504$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes14c1,500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.9915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5309…27efbacked No59c1,478$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a70…2828backed No55c1,454$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d94…526dbacked No53c1,431$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes19c1,366$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.182917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf897…7eafbacked Yes52c1,342$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.17977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed No54c1,335$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.097657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes3c1,301$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.6619336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeabd…3a01backed Yes36c1,279$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.593522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes8c1,258$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.454528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969c…5266backed Yes41c1,245$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.841283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+159.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c1,199$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.211541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…772dbacked No55c1,173$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc330…c0d8backed No53c1,159$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c07…2907backed No55c1,144$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c1,134$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.232541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked No57c1,129$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.272245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c08…4db4backed Yes48c1,120$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No5c1,107$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.