Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4520ec892fb1cecca1063247fb32aa636a4e2fb59ba4c62ba4ae0d539af2e4c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed4d…d601backed No | 1c | 30,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked No | 23c | 22,280$5,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,037.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 56c | 11,630$6,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.53 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…92d2backed Yes | 70c | 9,997$6,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…42d9backed No | 13c | 7,708$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 65c | 5,666$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.1 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 49c | 4,199$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 62c | 3,397$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.18 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 11c | 3,254$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 11c | 2,600$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 61c | 2,357$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.53 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…e8a1backed No | 68c | 2,320$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 71c | 2,019$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.57 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 42c | 1,956$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 58c | 1,700$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.57 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 44c | 1,586$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 54c | 1,559$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,366$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,302$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.07 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…770bbacked No | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,194$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed Yes | 58c | 1,131$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 51c | 1,100$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.98 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 15c | 1,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…c94ebacked No | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked No | 18c | 777$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 52c | 769.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.24 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 13c | 730.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes | 55c | 722.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 1c | 715.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 48c | 629.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 67c | 619.11$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 615.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…58a7backed Yes | 80c | 600$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 571.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…d1dfbacked No | 10c | 560$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 41c | 555.63$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 55c | 545.35$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.61 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 27c | 494.45$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.95 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…4602backed No | 10c | 485.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes | 57c | 466.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +2,349.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes | 44c | 454.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…7526backed No | 46c | 449.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b13…c9c2backed Yes | 53c | 442.96$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…efe6backed Yes | 47c | 405$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…9422backed Yes | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes | 50c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 44c | 389.71$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 48c | 378.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed No | 60c | 341.59$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 59c | 320$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 67c | 314.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed No | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 298.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 35c | 275.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed No | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes | 80c | 250.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6333…178cbacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 39c | 232.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 231.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 223.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…334dbacked Yes | 46c | 210.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 209.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…3717backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 9c | 197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…ad06backed No | 73c | 187.9$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 53c | 172.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…abbbbacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 41c | 159.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…7d66backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…7464backed No | 64c | 146.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.7wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…f293backed No | 40c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 53c | 128$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 44c | 127.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 59c | 122.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 50c | 119.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 9c | 112.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 105.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked No | 10c | 104.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…c689backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40d…683ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…626dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.