TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed4d…d601backed No1c30,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked No23c22,280$5,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,037.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed Yes56c11,630$6,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,102.537270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x59cd…92d2backed Yes70c9,997$6,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.193100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e2…42d9backed No13c7,708$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes65c5,666$3,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.111124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde28…a563backed No37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.99147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b85…cd3abacked No49c4,199$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4204…d02bbacked Yes62c3,397$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.181492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.2wins+0.59per pick34cpaid+617.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No11c3,254$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.951216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No11c2,600$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2865320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes61c2,357$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.538154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7903…e8a1backed No68c2,320$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.691040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes71c2,019$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.578733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes42c1,956$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.44544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes58c1,700$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.5715941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf97e…0034backed Yes44c1,586$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.371369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No54c1,559$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.63256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c1,440$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c1,366$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.817663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes54c1,302$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.073256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f4…770bbacked No50c1,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-76.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c1,194$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.861541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa56c…a440backed Yes58c1,131$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.251172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked No51c1,100$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.985459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d06…ec01backed Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No15c1,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.995343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93b4…c94ebacked No12c800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb39a…abedbacked No18c777$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.86922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.36per pick58cpaid-66.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes52c769.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.248744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No13c730.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes55c722.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No1c715.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.016940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No48c629.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No67c619.11$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.714548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c615.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.932541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b9…58a7backed Yes80c600$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed No39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2344037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No4c571.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba31…d1dfbacked No10c560$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No41c555.63$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.251010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes55c545.35$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.614617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2053560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed No2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.513023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes27c494.45$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.954528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d4f…4602backed No10c485.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes57c466.23$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.781275%9 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+2,349.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbbbf…b4f5backed Yes44c454.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.931250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2c…7526backed No46c449.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b13…c9c2backed Yes53c442.96$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec1…efe6backed Yes47c405$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9734…9422backed Yes57c400$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27219543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes50c400$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.153447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No44c389.71$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9815041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed Yes48c378.6$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.62552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed No60c341.59$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.412227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes59c320$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.21752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No67c314.8$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.772020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed No46c300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1392744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No4c298.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.253315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes35c275.27$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.511145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No46c260$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.68421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes80c250.23$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6333…178cbacked No42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No39c232.45$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6612840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c231.09$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c223.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1825422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae3…334dbacked Yes46c210.64$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+194.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c209.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1919336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85de…3717backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b97…e4f1backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x726b…3d01backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No9c197$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7346…ad06backed No73c187.9$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No53c172.86$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.777047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x90bb…abbbbacked Yes60c166$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No41c159.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.495127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.53174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0c84…7d66backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fa…7464backed No64c146.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.091020%2 W · 8 L-4.7wins-0.47per pick67cpaid-73.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes25c130$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a3…f293backed No40c130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes53c128$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.162152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No44c127.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.323050%15 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+65.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes59c122.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+114.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No50c119.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5414141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No9c112.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c105.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.063495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked No10c104.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d97…c689backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40d…683ebacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646a…4635backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c5…626dbacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.