TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3a3a…ee52

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
122
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+400%+$240
Will Les Wexner Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+455.6%+$1,639.95
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.5
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+194.1%+$197.76
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Brian Armstrong attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$1,820
Will Todd Blanche be Trump's Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$95.5
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$930
Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+165.6%+$1,009.84
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+244.8%+$710
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$669.93
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$119.5
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+426.3%+$405
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+127.3%+$56
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+117.4%+$30.04
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$17.19
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$83.19
All 24 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2313%3 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$610
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will Solana reach $130 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$260
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$139.93
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$5,645Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,644.68
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$135
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$840
Solana all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.23
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$489.47
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$2,704.05
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+56.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+316.7%+$380
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+203%+$335
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+488.2%+$165.96
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+488.2%+$165.96
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$1,318.9
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2024, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+306.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT+4,900%+$980
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$158.97
Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT+494.5%+$988.95
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 20-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$96
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+376.2%+$316
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$104
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$24.57
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT+170.3%+$126
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$197.5
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.45
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$319.99
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.79
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$700
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+81.5%+$44.9
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$46
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+62%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2024, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+195.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$51.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$262.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.