AI · resolved market
Will Amazon purchase Bitcoin before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5ec0f6f193051b40bfe811e6d720ce44b26d2d4cd0ccfae99034874670afa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 6c | 4,373$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083a…c64dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…c876backed Yes | 1c | 2,935$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 1c | 2,595$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,996$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,866$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 1c | 1,588$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,391$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 1c | 1,374$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,277$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 9c | 1,273$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…37b9backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…aaecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…6869backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…27f6backed Yes | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…8729backed Yes | 2c | 801.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 6c | 799.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked Yes | 6c | 779.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…13b1backed Yes | 11c | 690.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 651.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 646.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…3ff3backed Yes | 2c | 643.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…4636backed Yes | 12c | 525.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…6dc7backed Yes | 4c | 517.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…2330backed Yes | 13c | 471.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 7c | 407.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…738fbacked Yes | 10c | 399.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…d79ebacked Yes | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7855…5c68backed Yes | 5c | 323.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 11c | 322.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 312.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…3a08backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 7c | 296.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…f85dbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 11c | 225.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…7468backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…e005backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…abd8backed Yes | 10c | 194.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…c6b6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 13c | 157.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7b…6785backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…72a0backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…9528backed Yes | 12c | 108.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…6745backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…d455backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…be82backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…dfa3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 12c | 96.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…e597backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…64b8backed Yes | 12c | 86.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.