TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5b4…770d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
525
Categories scored
31
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST14843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 148 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$51.3
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.89
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$8.87
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.89
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.52
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$213.92
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$71.95
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+150%+$16.2
Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.47
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.14
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Will Putin visit the U.S. before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.82
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$8.44
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires TikTok before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.46
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.91
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.95
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.43
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$64.89
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Showing 25 of 148 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT7125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.1
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.89
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+525%+$52.5
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$21.44
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.99
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.03
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.06
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$84.84
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.02
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.42
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.45
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.62
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$5.16
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.46
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.37
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.11
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$83.39
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$169.67
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$35.02
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$106.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$21.01
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.35
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.74
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.05
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.19
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.46
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+390.3%+$66.71
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.99
Israel military action against Iran in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.09
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+55.7%+$22.93
Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.88
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.84
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.31
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$11.36
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST3611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ye banned on X in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26.26
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+671.1%+$316.19
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$323.15
Will Dittman tweet between 110 and 119 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30.5
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,549Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+239.5%+$8,501.75
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$2,701.89
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$401.33
Will Dittman tweet between 120 and 129 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18.82
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$765.19
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,201.84
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$398.04
Will Dittman tweet between 70 and 79 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$42.22
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$200.3
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$88.54
Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.65
Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,496Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST+201.5%+$3,013.63
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$316.53
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$365.96
Will Dittman tweet less than 60 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$31.18
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$246.54
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$207.75
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$219.39
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$170.65
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$185.56
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91.95
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+132.6%+$93.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$83.56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+77.6%+$15.57
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$11.28
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
Will Ukraine join NATO before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.88
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.03
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.16
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$59.2
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$4.3
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.03
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.2
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45.38
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$17.03
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.9
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.29
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.91
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+43.5%+$17.4
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT3030%9 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$380.99
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.85
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.85
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.59
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.85
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$196.72
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$186.5
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+75.4%+$61.66
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2024 NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Suns vs. Heatbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Hawksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$94.99
Kings vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Bucks vs. Celticsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$28.08
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$46.67
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$44.7
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+135.9%+$265.42
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+85.7%+$251.78
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+56.3%+$25
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+203%+$22.16
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+281.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.56
OpenSea airdrop before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.44
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
Will another country launch a memecoin in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.16
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$33.51
Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$31.13
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+42.9%+$107.14
Will Berachain launch a token in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$27.44
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+2,089.9%+$2,869.28
Avail airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.21
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.41
Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+92.3%+$92.3
Will Enron launch a token in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$13.58
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$52.85
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+69.5%+$40.05
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+284.6%+$66.6
Will Coinbase announce Peanut the Squirrel as next listing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+3,233.3%+$3,206.73
Will Coinbase announce Just a chill guy as next listing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$58.46
Will Coinbase announce another coin as next listing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+839%+$697.36
Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$17.89
All 20 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-57.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.92
Will global temperature increase by between 1.13-1.17ºC in April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
2025 January hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,262Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+46.5%+$1,517.12
Megaquake in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$135.91
Will the high in Washington DC be between 24-25°F on January 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$17.9
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+41.8%+$137.22
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+54%+$228.83
Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$154.8
Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$43.03
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$210.32
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,094Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,093.84
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$163.91
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$718Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+118.5%+$850.81
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$225.46
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$146.77
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$231.2
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$148.62
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$435.39
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.13
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.78
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.14
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+204.9%+$96.07
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$53.76
Will Amazon purchase Bitcoin before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.7
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$157.26
DeepSeek banned in US before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.97
Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.66
DeepSeek removed from App Store before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$47.4
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$26.49
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$72.45
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$176.31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+222.8%+$353.38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$208.12
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$61.66
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$327.39
All 18 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 4 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.74
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 5 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.32
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$5.23
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$360.7
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$580.92
Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Saquon Barkley win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC Westbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST+43.9%+$17.54
Bears vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+33.3%+$40.86
Panthers vs. Eaglesbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$99.99
Browns vs. Broncosbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+198.5%+$34.1
Seahawks vs. Jetsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+115.8%+$34.74
Cardinals vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+143.9%+$23.24
Chargers vs. Falconsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+100%+$10
Bears vs. Lionsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$3.34
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$167.94
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+300%+$347.97
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+37%+$60.48
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$114.46
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$14.29
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$70.13
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$37.97
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$38.03
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Mufasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$26.32
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$115
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+70%+$419.94
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+89.4%+$44.53
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.64
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.72
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.06
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.42
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+31.6%+$63.19
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$101.5
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$305.6
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+70%+$14
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid+202.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+3,376.7%+$2,074.41
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.08
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.73
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.46
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Liverpool · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.61
Will PSV Eindhoven advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$95.08
Will Juventus advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$96.5
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Will Stade Brestois advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+53.8%+$55.59
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15.69
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+34.2%+$14.07
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+47.5%+$23.71
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mitch McConnell retire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.63
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42.21
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$72.15
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$44.31
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$126.4
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$45.27
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+57.2%+$125.8
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Republicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+25%+$240
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$485
Ohio State vs. Oregonbacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+78.6%+$107.14
Boston College vs. Nebraskabacked Nebraska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+61.3%+$44.29
South Florida vs. San José Statebacked San José State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$45.39
Memphis vs. West Virginiabacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+44.9%+$56.52
All 5 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.74
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+89.2%+$64.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan and Jake Paul fight before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.74
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.65
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$15.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Will Elon be worth $500b before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$28.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alex Ovechkin break the scoring record this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$8.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$92.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+27.5%+$25.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$159.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$43.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Venezuela opposition leader Machado released by Monday? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$228.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.