Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x354770cccdceceaf6ae28d6461e1e585a2c216e9d060445a7da43b1ce2fca051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2083…962ebacked Yes | 9c | 13,492$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 9c | 6,315$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.04 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 17c | 3,529$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 11c | 3,007$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 4c | 2,900$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 19c | 1,875$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.45 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 68c | 1,438$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.85 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 10c | 1,363$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 12c | 1,320$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.06 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…4b4ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,200$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,070$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 897.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 21c | 843.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…f1b6backed No | 67c | 789.81$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 13c | 776.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…8845backed Yes | 12c | 748.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 11c | 735.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 665.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 629.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 9c | 534.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 72c | 499.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 17c | 499.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 474.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…03f4backed Yes | 12c | 407.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 27c | 357.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 316.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 26c | 258.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x257f…2264backed Yes | 42c | 239.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 221.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 16c | 220.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…237cbacked Yes | 19c | 214.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…44c7backed Yes | 29c | 173.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 19c | 168.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 161.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 63c | 157.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 11c | 139.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…2b98backed No | 74c | 136.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 19c | 136$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 10c | 124.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…1888backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…8af1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 12c | 98.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 18c | 96.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 23c | 92.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…158bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…8b4cbacked No | 74c | 70.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…4ae6backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…9925backed No | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…54fabacked Yes | 38c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 63c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…9284backed No | 73c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.