TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0fd8…372b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Boxing, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.4%+$15.91
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.8%+$8.37
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$123.29
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$69.9
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,316Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+37.3%+$490.6
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+53.8%+$26.92
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+61.3%+$6.68
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+28.2%+$141.03
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$159.38
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+75.4%+$15.72
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$14
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,417Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+26.1%+$1,412.86
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.25
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+66.7%+$53.27
Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+66.7%+$18.67
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+42.9%+$10.8
Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$146.88
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-80.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+499.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+69.3%+$61.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+153.4%+$131.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$35.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.