Us Politics · resolved market
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a86b3971f01557db0954e47e83c29013333e3422e3e9b4716c136823f24f7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,358,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,243,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,358,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,922 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 0c | 572,479$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.74 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 41c | 210,524$86,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124,101.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 56c | 170,249$96,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,099.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 61c | 54,447$33,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,064.18 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 16c | 52,715$8,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,263.31 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 6c | 25,634$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 62c | 24,427$15,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,363.54 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 11c | 23,763$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495.16 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 49c | 20,199$9,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,324.51 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 46c | 20,123$9,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,314.91 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 28c | 18,779$5,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,550.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 64c | 18,695$12,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,689.36 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…c51fbacked Yes | 70c | 17,506$12,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 46c | 17,272$7,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,957.11 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 44c | 16,746$7,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,394.04 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 25c | 16,662$4,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,433.73 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 46c | 14,913$6,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,986.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…3687backed Yes | 47c | 13,696$6,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,228.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…b84fbacked Yes | 43c | 13,669$5,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,759.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 29c | 13,000$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,207.29 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…e109backed Yes | 46c | 12,115$5,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,538.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 15c | 11,784$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.84 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 45c | 11,742$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,486.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 77c | 11,700$9,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,024.6 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 45c | 11,575$5,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,186.85 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 43c | 11,336$4,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,510.71 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 41c | 10,968$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,514.96 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 28c | 10,533$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.87 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…283ebacked No | 76c | 10,492$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…7ab2backed Yes | 43c | 10,480$4,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,973.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 19c | 10,410$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,416.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 10,344$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…7f4bbacked No | 6c | 10,182$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 50c | 10,125$5,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,036.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 80c | 10,002$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 22c | 10,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 9,999$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.96 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 27c | 8,602$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.28 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 26c | 8,346$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.33 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 8,184$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,460.33 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…6814backed No | 6c | 8,024$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 31c | 8,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 7,860$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,621.32 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…c56bbacked Yes | 27c | 7,690$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,578.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 20c | 7,269$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.69 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 73c | 7,235$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.12 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 57c | 7,135$4,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,058.96 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 43c | 7,084$3,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.69 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 1c | 7,060$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 74c | 6,982$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.72 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 42c | 6,222$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,595.78 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 72c | 6,128$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.01 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 49c | 6,125$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 32c | 6,023$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,071.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 5c | 5,703$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.63 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 73c | 5,518$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.53 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed No | 58c | 5,333$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 47c | 5,303$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.14 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 75c | 5,255$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.3 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 5,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 69c | 5,013$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.58 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed No | 12c | 5,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…9260backed No | 31c | 4,828$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 55c | 4,645$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.15 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 71c | 4,229$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 18c | 3,980$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.11 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 69c | 3,771$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ff…c5ecbacked Yes | 46c | 3,680$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 73c | 3,160$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.65 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 71c | 3,154$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.56 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 35c | 3,140$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.88 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 80c | 3,128$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…cf3cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,025$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 59c | 2,887$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.59 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 29c | 2,791$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked Yes | 25c | 2,770$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 8c | 2,614$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,464$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 41c | 2,427$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 8c | 2,356$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,314$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 30c | 2,301$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.43 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,274$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 2,255$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.09 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed Yes | 45c | 2,237$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 21c | 2,124$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 51c | 2,105$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.36 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…5b3bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,058$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,043$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.59 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 2,035$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.01 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 41c | 2,031$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…95cebacked No | 74c | 1,967$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…595cbacked No | 51c | 1,938$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 39c | 1,933$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.57 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 68c | 1,928$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 43c | 1,900$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 35c | 1,875$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,800$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 60c | 1,653$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.16 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 36c | 1,648$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Elbridge Colby be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.