Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb1a78f1cbbc182b4235fda475a21ae1dcf22bfc29982c9f1e5c30fcee2d7c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 25c | 14,017$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.11 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 26c | 13,436$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.71 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 35c | 8,604$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,024.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,177$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 16c | 7,672$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.67 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 20c | 7,430$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.68 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 7,226$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.52 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 9c | 4,484$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…1ad2backed Yes | 36c | 4,235$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,166$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 0c | 3,403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed No | 61c | 3,369$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 35c | 2,484$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.02 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,347$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 74c | 2,299$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.91 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 24c | 2,135$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.14 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…9ff1backed Yes | 38c | 2,085$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 11c | 2,063$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.26 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 37c | 1,901$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.6 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 41c | 1,879$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.67 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 36c | 1,870$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 62c | 1,792$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 1,703$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.99 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 11c | 1,624$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 54c | 1,609$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 63c | 1,591$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked No | 64c | 1,550$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…595cbacked No | 65c | 1,498$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 57c | 1,442$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.05 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 29c | 1,440$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 46c | 1,390$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 61c | 1,319$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 67c | 1,225$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…dc63backed Yes | 19c | 1,203$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…7f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,201$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 25c | 1,118$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 12c | 1,058$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 1,055$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 15c | 1,039$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 24c | 971.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 45c | 930$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…e657backed Yes | 37c | 904.59$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 41c | 899.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed No | 62c | 879.88$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…37adbacked Yes | 39c | 867.44$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 61c | 777$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.41 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 19c | 750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 35c | 730.96$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.39 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 27c | 688$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 37c | 685$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…f0c4backed Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 560.98$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 62c | 560$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 27c | 555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 37c | 540.87$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…a23abacked Yes | 18c | 537.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…8c5bbacked Yes | 26c | 502.37$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked No | 57c | 500.11$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Yes | 12c | 499.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked Yes | 40c | 495.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…107abacked Yes | 11c | 494.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 61c | 475.39$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…95cebacked Yes | 41c | 453.65$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 11c | 451.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 36c | 437.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 69c | 434$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…af21backed Yes | 44c | 423.13$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…55b8backed Yes | 2c | 420.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 39c | 401.6$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed No | 70c | 392.89$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…0cacbacked Yes | 27c | 381.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 26c | 371.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3ef2backed No | 60c | 364.35$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 35c | 341.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 52c | 337.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 63c | 319.45$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…e62cbacked Yes | 45c | 315.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…4f10backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…91fabacked Yes | 10c | 296$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…4e5ebacked Yes | 10c | 295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…df3abacked Yes | 10c | 294$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…b750backed Yes | 10c | 280$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 36c | 278.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 35c | 271.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 55c | 270$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 29c | 268.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9ca3backed Yes | 9c | 259$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 25c | 256$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Elbridge Colby be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Yes won
- Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.