Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x961e15a92d8269a32ba50e64e96ecf03ece20aff46afd56a496cdc1bd96a7876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 2c | 26,737$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.5 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,762$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 9c | 11,087$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.55 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 8,435$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 6,117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,020$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.04 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 3c | 4,789$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 3c | 4,435$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 6c | 4,083$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.14 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 6c | 3,452$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.36 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 7c | 3,213$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 6c | 2,737$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 6c | 2,568$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…f9c9backed Yes | 3c | 2,241$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 11c | 1,410$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,401$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…01afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,243$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,215$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Yes | 5c | 1,199$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,040$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…7115backed Yes | 6c | 834.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 559.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 555$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 532.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 10c | 485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 13c | 481$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 5c | 435.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 5c | 409.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 392.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…2c34backed Yes | 4c | 373.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…6a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 356.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…2619backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…f0c4backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 6c | 201.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 7c | 189.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 9c | 182.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 180.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 111.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Elbridge Colby be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Yes won
- Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.