Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe0ab8fc16c515a26369e5a6b8d93edf8651a20d297f5f5c5c1468d752c8c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,022,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $815,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,022,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 970 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 179,298$8,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,973.22 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 43,269$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.02 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 29,024$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.91 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 21,818$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.68 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,416$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 6c | 11,437$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.47 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 6c | 11,175$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.67 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…61b2backed Yes | 3c | 9,807$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…e2e3backed Yes | 3c | 8,690$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 7,788$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.49 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…aec2backed Yes | 8c | 7,768$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 7,172$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…2a60backed Yes | 3c | 6,912$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…fc80backed Yes | 7c | 6,605$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…42a1backed Yes | 7c | 6,555$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 6,366$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…791abacked Yes | 8c | 6,272$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…4d83backed Yes | 3c | 6,197$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…6f00backed Yes | 7c | 6,179$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 6,008$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f90…201fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,813$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…749ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,798$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…ab71backed Yes | 3c | 5,180$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…f001backed Yes | 6c | 5,098$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…48adbacked Yes | 5c | 4,641$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…da65backed Yes | 5c | 4,403$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 4c | 4,317$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…4671backed Yes | 5c | 4,272$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 8c | 4,203$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.7 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…33ccbacked Yes | 5c | 4,131$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…d27fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,094$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb3…1e39backed Yes | 5c | 3,967$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…8e61backed Yes | 6c | 3,894$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…65bebacked Yes | 6c | 3,814$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d20…099bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,780$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…a6d1backed Yes | 6c | 3,724$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…1ff5backed Yes | 5c | 3,720$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…9d7cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,649$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…e815backed Yes | 6c | 3,641$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…23afbacked Yes | 7c | 3,562$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1d…f312backed Yes | 6c | 3,444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…f9c9backed Yes | 3c | 3,352$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…e7f6backed Yes | 5c | 3,328$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…272ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,323$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…7210backed Yes | 6c | 3,245$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…5758backed Yes | 1c | 3,240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…befdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,239$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…dfccbacked Yes | 6c | 3,212$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…08a4backed Yes | 6c | 3,193$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…e835backed Yes | 6c | 3,190$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…871ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,155$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…b2febacked Yes | 4c | 3,140$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…a531backed Yes | 5c | 3,135$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…2ab5backed Yes | 6c | 3,134$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…5c24backed Yes | 8c | 3,117$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…7996backed Yes | 6c | 3,099$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…7df8backed Yes | 5c | 3,098$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…1445backed Yes | 6c | 3,076$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…b47ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,034$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…d194backed Yes | 6c | 3,028$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…9422backed Yes | 6c | 3,020$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…53eebacked Yes | 5c | 3,012$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…48f9backed Yes | 6c | 2,999$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…90b9backed Yes | 7c | 2,986$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…9ecfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,977$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b94…f620backed Yes | 8c | 2,974$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 4c | 2,971$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba13…97a4backed Yes | 8c | 2,914$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…f82ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,905$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…e59ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,905$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…1c09backed Yes | 7c | 2,903$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…7dcfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,899$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…7d76backed Yes | 6c | 2,895$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…f5dcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,895$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…f3b5backed Yes | 6c | 2,894$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…bcc4backed Yes | 6c | 2,892$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…4ccdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,882$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…333ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,879$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 6c | 2,874$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32c…4e03backed Yes | 6c | 2,852$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 2,847$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…0e46backed Yes | 6c | 2,842$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce4…67a9backed Yes | 6c | 2,836$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…661dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,828$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…32e2backed Yes | 6c | 2,822$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 7c | 2,821$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…793abacked Yes | 7c | 2,818$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…5401backed Yes | 8c | 2,814$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…4075backed Yes | 6c | 2,806$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…aac0backed Yes | 6c | 2,799$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…899abacked Yes | 5c | 2,792$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…c7cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,792$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259d…08b1backed Yes | 8c | 2,782$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…e77dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,764$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…1467backed Yes | 6c | 2,759$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…2984backed Yes | 6c | 2,742$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…2a04backed Yes | 6c | 2,742$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…bcbcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,742$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…2593backed Yes | 6c | 2,738$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Elbridge Colby be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Yes won
- Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.