TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,904,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,310,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,904,060 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f2b…20dfbacked Yes0c1,136,733$4,547 inLost-$4,546.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe98…9ad0backed Yes0c1,136,733$4,547 inLost-$4,546.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3097…7e20backed Yes0c872,709$3,491 inLost-$3,490.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7340…9ef2backed Yes0c843,626$3,375 inLost-$3,374.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes0c149,428$149 inLost-$149.434814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c44,176$88 inLost-$88.352847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…d1a1backed Yes0c23,244$70 inLost-$69.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c20,370$62 inLost-$61.972400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8eb…cce3backed Yes0c12,200$37 inLost-$36.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c66…bef0backed Yes0c11,177$34 inLost-$33.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes1c9,170$46 inLost-$461007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b2…7317backed Yes0c6,122$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ee…8d8cbacked Yes0c5,823$17 inLost-$17.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e8…8595backed Yes0c5,750$17 inLost-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes3c3,845$106 inLost-$105.823212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes4c2,936$125 inLost-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c2,640$16 inLost-$15.8432029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c2,382$13 inLost-$13.3418914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,670$17 inLost-$16.7696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c449.85$23 inLost-$22.662154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes10c120$11 inLost-$11.42321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.