TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0362…9661

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
391
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 63 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST16854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 168 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$208.8
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$497.76
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$476.84
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$346.45
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,096.4
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$305
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165.4
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,609Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$730.48
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.12
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.4
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,842Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$5,243.85
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.5
NYC congestion pricing repealed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$577.41
Will Trump remove carried interest loophole before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.61
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$263.67
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,882Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+73.8%+$1,389.75
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.22
Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.45
Will Trump visit Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.52
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,679Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$994.37
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.48
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$810
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+95.5%+$159.8
Showing 25 of 168 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT4318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$620.06
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$9,924Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+93.1%+$9,242.55
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.33
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,095.33
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$487.56
Israel military action against Iran before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,366.25
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.06
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+395.7%+$2,304.37
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$379.85
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$355.45
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.88
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+87.2%+$139.3
Will Trump say "Iran" during his February 4 press conference with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$18.32
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his February 4 press conference with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$47.62
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$788Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+358.8%+$2,829.23
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$391.85
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$744Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$743.67
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.72
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$17.21
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+194.1%+$660
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$177.84
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$636.98
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,773Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+96.4%+$1,708.83
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+304.5%+$1,838.28
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$647Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$348.25
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$1,382.7
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$927Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$2,383.45
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,187.54
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.64
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$663.69
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,178Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+32.1%+$1,340.11
Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$291.74
Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$136.11
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9.45
Trump meets with Carney before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$805Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$218.95
Georgescu banned from Romania election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.84
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,186.66
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,836Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$3,799.08
Will Trump congratulate Canada election winner by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.26
Will Canada remove retaliatory tariffs on USA in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.09
Bolsonaro arrested before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.59
Will Democrats win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+49.7%+$55.07
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.61
Will Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.64
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$802Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+50.3%+$403.26
Canada tariffs on U.S. in effect by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+62.9%+$70.41
Will Donald Trump say Putin 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+73.5%+$48.3
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$154.43
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$955Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$954.75
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88.89
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.25
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$973.68
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$523.96
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,459Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$567.81
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.51
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$530.95
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,387.82
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$750.89
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$5,420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+179.9%+$9,752.28
U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.7
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,679Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,679.02
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,009Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$1,451.72
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16,716Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,716.44
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+185.8%+$534.91
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+360.5%+$1,215.94
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,885.33
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$407.7
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.91
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,443Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+109%+$3,751.85
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,008Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+25.4%+$509.45
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$17.62
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$158.5
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Myles Garrett be traded before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+66.9%+$17.64
Will Trey Hendrickson be traded before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.83
Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+48.3%+$415.5
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Raiders?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$4.22
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.7
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+58.2%+$33.52
Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$779.87
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.81
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,781Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+31.3%+$1,809
Who will be shown first during national anthem- Chiefs or Eagles?backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,883Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+104.1%+$5,082.29
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$6,839Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$6,838.89
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$4,456Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$4,455.77
Will the Jaguars hire Brian Flores as their next head coach?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15.77
Will Ben Johnson be the head coach of the Raiders in the 2025-26 NFL season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13.63
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,407Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+67.1%+$1,615.09
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$191.82
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,520Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+46.7%+$1,177.34
Commanders vs. Buccaneersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$9,339Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+38.7%+$3,614.5
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$69.63
Will the LA Rams game get moved to Phoenix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+48.7%+$261.6
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$31.91
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,297.03
Browns vs. Ravensbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Lions vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$978Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$978.01
Belichick next UNC head coach?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$22.39
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,345Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+106.2%+$2,489.59
Minnesota vs. Virginia Techbacked Virginia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34.55
North Texas vs. Texas Statebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$3,282.42
Duke vs. Ole Missbacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$45.23
Notre Dame vs. Georgiabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,097Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,096.6
Penn State vs. Boise Statebacked Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$773.73
East Carolina vs. NC Statebacked NC State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$873Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$873.21
Texas A&M vs. USCbacked USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,793Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+246.6%+$4,421.75
Texas Tech vs. Arkansasbacked Texas Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$285.23
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbiltbacked Georgia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$11.99
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Greenbacked Arkansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+171.2%+$674.57
Rutgers vs. Kansas Statebacked Kansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$7,801Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+32.2%+$2,509.31
Clemson vs. SMUbacked SMU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$77.31
Will Georgia beat Alabama?backed Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,920Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+44.7%+$1,304.89
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Myles Turner score the most total points in the NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$26.77
Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+77.2%+$215.24
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+477.4%+$263.39
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Phoenix Suns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25.19
Will Jimmy Butler get traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$723Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+57.3%+$413.96
Celtics vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$28.18
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$14.27
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+102.2%+$199.23
Timberwolves vs. Rocketsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+122.2%+$122.22
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$189.17
Will Bronny James score a point tonight?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT+41.7%+$85.41
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$255.41
Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.37
Will the Senate confirm Ed Martin before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+38.1%+$242.63
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+69.5%+$1,473.63
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$2,119.86
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$108.53
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+57%+$78.09
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$621Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+25.7%+$159.69
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,705Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+48.9%+$1,811.65
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,479Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+28.2%+$417.44
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$198
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick16cpaid+416.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+431.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+282.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+282.3%+$1,033.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend F1 Miami GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+45%+$183.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 316 tonight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.