TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,090,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,001,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,090,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3091…a2a9backed Yes2c60,687$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes1c58,772$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa13d…47f5backed Yes3c47,852$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c47,160$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,725.520614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f7…d487backed Yes2c45,749$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbe…9bd8backed Yes3c39,928$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes2c39,182$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.37911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c32,845$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.754413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…0439backed Yes5c28,027$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes10c24,351$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.6wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1714…130ebacked Yes2c22,952$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes14c19,484$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc32…3290backed Yes1c16,893$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb936…00cabacked Yes1c16,424$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes2c15,768$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes39c15,150$5,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,868.855135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes6c14,450$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.722611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes7c13,771$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.817225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3156…3da6backed Yes1c10,499$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No53c10,424$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,891.586439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes37c10,013$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.181656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes31c9,404$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.183930.8%12 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c35…1343backed Yes1c9,127$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.24812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e27…efd1backed Yes1c9,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes47c8,844$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,151.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed Yes20c7,121$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.951656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes18c7,080$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.783030%9 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+640.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757f…ae31backed Yes2c6,462$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc256…c7b9backed No59c5,570$3,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1203…2cd2backed Yes9c5,465$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+98.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes20c5,266$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe645…2ed2backed No14c4,570$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,936.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+487.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes1c4,244$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.455131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No66c4,147$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.488035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2036…0939backed Yes1c3,900$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes3c3,490$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.853345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes48c3,245$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8e…7737backed Yes46c3,171$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.71050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked No80c3,158$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9d…7213backed Yes3c3,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e35…bf58backed Yes1c3,024$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes43c3,000$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes25c2,989$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes79c2,968$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a3…0252backed Yes2c2,943$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes27c2,921$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.261540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No64c2,686$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246f…773cbacked No77c2,674$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.841070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed No51c2,618$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed No55c2,384$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+109.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b70…1a3abacked Yes1c2,233$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes71c2,220$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes28c2,003$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.891471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No75c2,000$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.412817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes1c1,998$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes34c1,970$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.710037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e9…0801backed Yes21c1,935$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked No59c1,923$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed Yes2c1,881$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed No41c1,876$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+92.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes41c1,868$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.724445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No69c1,739$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.637254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6615…665dbacked Yes18c1,670$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No59c1,554$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.812842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes7c1,471$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.041216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x33ad…a785backed Yes2c1,471$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb833…3ff7backed No69c1,420$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1add…d2afbacked No51c1,380$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…e579backed Yes2c1,349$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3b…47bebacked Yes18c1,311$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b70…ed51backed No45c1,257$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c1,250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.997225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes51c1,223$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.413666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No52c1,211$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.6418036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed No30c1,208$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.493348.5%16 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.19per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No67c1,205$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.264250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed Yes10c1,100$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes1c1,005$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.857817.9%14 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12340%0 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked No61c976.9$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.91526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes35c922.17$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.491936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No60c903.77$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.19750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bf…2c05backed Yes2c886.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ed…6069backed No57c886.06$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab5…ba4abacked No78c880.05$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.611346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6713…3878backed Yes74c856.82$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe150…27b3backed No27c801.72$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed No45c793.99$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.421723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes22c777.39$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes3c770$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes32c769.58$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.167834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed No50c761.15$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No70c738.47$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.632339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes20c728.08$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.657238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No44c713.14$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.737625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No24c699.76$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.172035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6477…707dbacked Yes62c682.2$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes26c679$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.693357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes66c636.32$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+173.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes2c629.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.031233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.