TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fa0…488b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$500
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$755.05
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+49.3%+$98.62
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+54.9%+$120.82
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.71
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.36
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.87
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+62.8%+$376.9
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$40.5
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$284.3
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,520
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+34.3%+$102.81
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+150.4%+$300.75
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.9%+$52.86
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+181.1%+$181.07
No US strike on Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$531.14
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+132.4%+$595.66
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$35.47
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.8
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$992.89
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$60.26
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-42.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Canucks vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Flyers vs. Canadiensbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+108.3%+$433.33
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bruins vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Utah vs. Sharksbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Ducks vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Blue Jackets vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Flames vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Ducks vs. Blackhawksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Islandersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+81.8%+$16.36
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-69.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+35.8%+$159.7
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+149.8%+$898.99
76ers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+28.4%+$119.38
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$324.59
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Saintsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,779Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+106.9%+$1,900.79
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,091Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+44.6%+$486.19
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+177.5%+$887.66
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$767Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$766.66
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+61.8%+$320.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,493.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wealthfront IPO in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.