TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,644,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,923,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,644,930 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed No10c200,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179,999.874042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No20c111,921$22,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,208.913,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No11c86,990$9,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,421.13429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No11c71,274$7,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,433.963650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes44c60,000$26,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,639.9811445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No10c58,579$5,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,824.824228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Yes72c43,346$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked No70c40,847$28,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,402.47933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No11c34,822$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,051.773333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No10c30,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,849.9716647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No57c29,774$17,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,772.565052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No17c29,173$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,154.0353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No49c26,430$12,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,474.274447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed No10c23,166$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,849.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+198.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe461…0bd9backed Yes0c20,039$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No10c18,906$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,014.9576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No9c17,817$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,213.352528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No10c16,829$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,146.15944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No51c15,695$7,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,723.956051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No11c15,295$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,612.554341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes27c12,122$3,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No21c10,787$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,557.1419544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed No18c9,378$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,719.91616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes62c9,000$5,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No10c8,603$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,742.883327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No11c8,019$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,136.84540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+181.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Yes75c8,019$6,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,013.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No17c7,948$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,598.775444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No11c7,603$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,794.4956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes20c7,234$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.8133244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No14c7,152$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,171.7775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes39c5,465$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.328932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes2c5,112$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No11c5,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,449.994524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes73c4,906$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.0422332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3444…46a1backed Yes35c4,818$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes21c4,640$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No10c4,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0502218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No3c4,195$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.342213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x072c…f037backed Yes74c4,027$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6004252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6009831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No10c3,995$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,585.1424050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No50c3,848$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.669455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed No11c3,790$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,379.951020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b86…d40abacked No11c3,500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed No62c3,209$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.412373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes1c3,159$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.634860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No3c3,000$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9076010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes73c2,995$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.673357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff0e…2991backed No11c2,953$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Yes34c2,951$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes34c2,944$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No9c2,914$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.917423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e9…e9debacked No11c2,726$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked No11c2,713$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e0…2d3fbacked Yes70c2,555$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No17c2,449$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.371,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa33…63e6backed No69c2,411$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Yes50c2,310$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.47944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes68c2,211$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd371…4478backed No1c1,910$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.41825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+1,204.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No31c1,900$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.293762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed No72c1,845$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes40c1,835$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0923842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No10c1,800$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No11c1,668$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.3715064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7216…16a4backed Yes33c1,518$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes52c1,401$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.34252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8819…4cf5backed No75c1,329$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf16…0601backed Yes29c1,200$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed No9c1,195$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.92326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked No10c1,190$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.256154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No11c1,186$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.347722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf292…b60cbacked No11c1,121$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.03977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+127.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68d8…ce04backed No10c1,102$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes50c1,101$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5553056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0887…408fbacked No10c1,099$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x343c…85ecbacked No10c1,049$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes29c1,000$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.515847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes28c999.98$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.994544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes71c995$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.762650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045f…e343backed Yes79c954.07$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.4850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc47e…8ae4backed No5c840.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.161060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+206.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes38c793.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No10c790.35$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.312737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No11c778.8$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.1310128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes38c746.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2806142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes28c720.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes26c716.66$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Yes57c701.21$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed Yes45c700$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.740%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes73c684.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Yes49c683.45$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No62c681.53$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0216542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes32c679.51$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1313332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes74c675.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes67c673$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.1421041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No37c627.22$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes46c605.86$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.752548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.