TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$457,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$364,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9e6…025bbacked Yes4c100,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes3c63,789$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.669455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes3c21,006$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.033327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes34c10,000$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,376.733855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes11c7,581$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.463,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes3c6,642$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.910128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes5c6,258$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054017.5%7 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes3c5,934$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.292528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes4c5,349$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3246…99ddbacked Yes4c5,200$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes8c4,611$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.3353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes3c4,531$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.856010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes3c4,133$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9815134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd03…5c70backed Yes3c3,567$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c2,957$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2728241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes0c2,888$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Yes3c2,867$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.731464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes10c2,594$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2719544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes3c2,524$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.485232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Yes5c2,400$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked No67c2,239$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.731668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Yes4c2,130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac71…b290backed Yes4c2,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+166.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes1c1,866$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1619458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes3c1,852$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.47722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes4c1,782$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes3c1,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed Yes1c1,359$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No66c1,357$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.8355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d0…7b84backed Yes4c1,291$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+82.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b0a…6b9fbacked Yes17c1,204$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes4c1,123$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes3c1,087$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.723046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes47c1,071$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes3c1,067$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.01944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes5c1,020$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8819…4cf5backed Yes55c913.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No78c829.29$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Yes53c752.45$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No58c750$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.752766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes3c700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed Yes4c676.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed No52c662.81$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed No56c646.73$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c607.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.714327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d7…6036backed Yes7c583.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+93.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes4c576.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5571…4015backed Yes4c540.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No48c538.93$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes47c532.53$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.254856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked No58c518.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed No58c518.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.13837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes39c509.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes54c479.61$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.511225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes9c468.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No63c465$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.964141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes3c450.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf0a…70a0backed Yes49c446.14$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes5c399.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes42c388.94$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked No52c386.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.033145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c381.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes4c372.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes6c338.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed Yes36c336.41$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Yes48c323.11$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No55c315.88$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.141662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…4155backed Yes50c312.04$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff32…2496backed No65c308.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…18e4backed Yes45c300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e6…7ef4backed Yes4c289.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf430…675abacked No70c271.55$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.741464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d75…8b3abacked Yes36c266.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes49c245.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202560%15 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes14c225$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…0b91backed No58c214.36$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.111369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed No69c202.12$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.865347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da0…2f48backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003250%16 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e8…e986backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4fe…7365backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked No51c198.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No60c188.48$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.393450%17 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+815.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes27c182.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.623842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed Yes50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed No74c157.17$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20c…aa73backed Yes52c152.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6976…f99bbacked No70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4135…2d72backed Yes35c141.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Yes36c139.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.