TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked No45c16,923$7,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,573.682,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes20c10,031$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,021.493327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes75c3,580$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Yes7c3,344$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,111.157847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes7c2,717$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.0715134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Yes37c2,716$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.43771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes7c1,500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.9927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Yes8c1,434$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.412050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes36c1,388$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes67c1,130$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Yes8c1,076$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,165.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes7c1,064$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.8110128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes37c1,033$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.01850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No19c1,000$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.745052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac71…b290backed Yes7c999.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+166.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed No35c899.99$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.262948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No44c866.47$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.413762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes57c783.93$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.4323842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes7c783.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.64017.5%7 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes14c731.67$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.975147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f4…4588backed Yes70c729.1$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes7c599.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.7415024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No49c597.41$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1813332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes7c592.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.1276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…63cbbacked Yes73c561.85$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No79c518.64$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9910463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes7c494.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+654%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…958dbacked Yes38c487.39$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.363145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Yes39c467.49$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No68c426.88$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes7c419.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.47722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes14c366.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+106.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb165…8ac9backed Yes63c334.41$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.923100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Yes23c326.09$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.091729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes44c322$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.171250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes6c321.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.627423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95bc…af59backed Yes72c317.6$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fb…96cfbacked Yes35c317.14$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No32c311.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9816542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…18e4backed Yes38c300$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2792544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes37c298.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.78988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Yes34c294.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.99229.1%2 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-69.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Yes7c285.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.713040%12 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+49.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d75…8b3abacked Yes39c281.53$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No65c280.51$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x045f…e343backed Yes38c264.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.22850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes7c263.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7918545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes7c251.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c247.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.67267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes6c246.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.6415064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed Yes7c242.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2272231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Yes49c237.37$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3838…2c6fbacked Yes61c236.63$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes76c231.54$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.716347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5f…d414backed Yes39c224.45$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Yes36c222.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.841533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes9c221.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.0124322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes37c221.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.792548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed No8c203.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.48119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…af75backed Yes10c202.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+910.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes20c201.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.019856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…ccc2backed Yes14c199.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+189.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes63c195.96$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.969856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No73c185$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48de…2c40backed Yes8c180$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d3f…8469backed Yes7c170.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,269.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0e…0d48backed Yes8c169.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,215.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4831…4feebacked Yes7c167.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,251.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4535…d7a1backed Yes66c158.88$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd333…2a71backed Yes37c157.18$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No52c152.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.541,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadff…e327backed Yes72c151.55$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Yes68c147.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes35c138.95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dbe…3b30backed Yes7c137.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+584.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes80c136.51$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.58560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Yes37c134.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78fd…9429backed Yes15c134.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+298.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2116…d3c2backed Yes38c131.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+115.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.585259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes14c121.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.43560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+209.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes71c105$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51580%12 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Yes36c102.81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+246.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Yes21c100.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.965621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b7…37d5backed Yes35c100.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.912552%13 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.13633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf8b…51f7backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e8…e986backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e28…fe79backed Yes15c99.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.373100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+300.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes30c99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d7…6036backed Yes26c77.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+93.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes66c75.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.874963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes61c72.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.422332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No72c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.48870.5%62 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed No34c59.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.