TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95bc…af59

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group B: Dino Prizmic vs Justin Engelbacked Engel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$18.99
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Yannick Hanfmannbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+26.6%+$9.42
Open de Moselle: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$54.35
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauffbacked Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.89
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$51.24
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Muller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+61.3%+$23.72
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+25.3%+$11.31
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+65.8%+$15.97
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournamentbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+53.8%+$9.29
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34.84
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+25%+$5.25
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$5.17
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+58.2%+$30.79
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$17.97
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$76.87
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$94.67
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+100%+$50.49
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
All 4 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+61.9%+$23.44
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$295.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+47.3%+$144.76
Packers vs. Giantsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivolbacked Bivol · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+112.8%+$39.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.