TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No44c12,196$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.23,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No37c7,922$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.732,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.645147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes56c1,793$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No22c1,561$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes77c1,480$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1623842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No45c1,275$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.5119544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Yes30c1,176$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.231729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed No42c1,150$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.633357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No35c1,048$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.754351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes72c990.99$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4180…3f85backed No73c849.32$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes12c800$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7072941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes24c757.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.8122747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No16c695.2$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.281,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes43c649.95$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.8375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2752…8ce3backed Yes78c615$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick78cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes79c583.53$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.848932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Yes28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3608336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Yes78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes26c499.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9914756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No73c499.74$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8124050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10d0…7b84backed Yes21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.19771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+82.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.442650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Yes10c400$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No40c384.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4313332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes71c374.65$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Yes71c374.37$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.33762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No72c346.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.847532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8309…fbecbacked Yes60c332.02$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Yes58c300$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1271136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x726f…9df7backed Yes71c293.41$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked No72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes26c257.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3410128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc317…4f97backed Yes78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes43c223.91$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.412157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…78d4backed Yes78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes66c196.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.973873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd9ef…841abacked Yes65c184.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4234…6b87backed Yes31c163.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.383464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb165…8ac9backed Yes79c162.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c2…895fbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0a…ada0backed Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4755…8e07backed Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+78.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f86…2874backed Yes60c140.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6310…0d90backed Yes80c135.46$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.472045%9 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No69c108.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a17…5524backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick76cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d75…8b3abacked Yes72c96.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked No72c94.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes28c89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0815134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Yes28c85.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.711353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes28c78.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.576142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4623…e2d7backed Yes66c77.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…3485backed Yes66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes27c75.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.225855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a82…491bbacked Yes14c72.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+327.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.434772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes29c70.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1320436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No31c69.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x823d…3d44backed Yes29c68.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.521442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No22c60.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9f…0852backed No73c56.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.252568%17 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick75cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes28c53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95bc…af59backed Yes79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.63366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Yes69c50.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2e…05e5backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f1…56e0backed Yes62c48.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes26c48.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7627726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed No74c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-4.4wins-0.23per pick65cpaid-39.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No72c35.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7115453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe3…d566backed Yes70c24.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No73c21.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cc6…79d5backed Yes77c20.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc7…2f88backed No74c20.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e9…c00abacked No74c15.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick64cpaid-62.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6685…6f54backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78fd…9429backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+298.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.