World Politics · resolved market
Will Noboa win outright in 1st round of Ecuador Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa00143a884f16434da36d119d2f42ea3b4887eb080987903a47124d40c139ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 66c | 2,240$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0880…fcbbbacked No | 69c | 1,053$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,014$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 32c | 986.74$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 68c | 580.3$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 71c | 499.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 65c | 476.53$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…0121backed No | 64c | 467.72$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…3dcebacked Yes | 36c | 467.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…b42abacked Yes | 34c | 458.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…67f6backed Yes | 24c | 399.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked No | 77c | 362.03$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 243.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 76c | 200.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 168.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…1f26backed Yes | 38c | 158.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…37a6backed Yes | 21c | 155.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 70c | 154.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…3b5abacked No | 66c | 153.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed Yes | 44c | 152.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 58c | 120.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…af59backed Yes | 48c | 119.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 70c | 111.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 66c | 105.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 18c | 99.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…4a1cbacked Yes | 27c | 81.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed No | 79c | 69.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6448…921ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…3836backed Yes | 40c | 50.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…ba9fbacked Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 40c | 41.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked No | 72c | 30.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…332abacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…9572backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…05debacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.