TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87ff…83f1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.31
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+132.6%+$14.25
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+361.2%+$100.04
Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.43
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+73.9%+$12.75
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.82
Will Trump release more Epstein files in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will America be profitable any month in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+38.2%+$30.4
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.23
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+129%+$33.8
Trump negative approval before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
Trump negative approval before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$26.3
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will Trump cut NPR funding in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.22
Will Trump sue AOC before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+455.6%+$59
Will courts block DOGE access to Treasury payments before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.75
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+55.3%+$8.9
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.79
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$9.19
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.84
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Noboa win outright in 1st round of Ecuador Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.95
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.77
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+376.2%+$39.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Cuban launch a coin by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+92.3%+$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.