Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182b89f680380a2428daedda8d8fca19416569f8c3fcec997f00780f69f81f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908f…7e43backed No | 57c | 96,918$55,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,674.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…7706backed Yes | 43c | 96,918$41,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,674.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked No | 64c | 1,069$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 78c | 1,049$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 974.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 5c | 929$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 888$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 35c | 802.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 74c | 487.47$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 41c | 486.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 467.46$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 453$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…a820backed Yes | 22c | 452.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked Yes | 2c | 425.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 75c | 388.76$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e971backed Yes | 56c | 374.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 21c | 304.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 14c | 296.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 255.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 51c | 252.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 18c | 219.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 186.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 24c | 143.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 58c | 142.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 56c | 134.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed No | 69c | 134.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 16c | 128.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 16c | 118.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 110.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 58c | 103.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…75edbacked Yes | 44c | 103.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda93…16dfbacked No | 58c | 93.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…acaebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…396ebacked Yes | 30c | 83.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…512abacked No | 54c | 74.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 23c | 73.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…965dbacked No | 79c | 55.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 55.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 69c | 53.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…07bebacked No | 51c | 51.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 43c | 43.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…440dbacked No | 50c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 80c | 24.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…64b3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.