TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b6c…890e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$78
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.38
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.5
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+426.3%+$127.89
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+380.4%+$502.55
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$33.43
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+148.8%+$52.09
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Kash Patel out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$121.08
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+150%+$22.5
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$18.06
Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+47.7%+$9.54
Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$90.92
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.12
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.76
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+313.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+313.5%+$94.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.