Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,797,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,048,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,797,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 49c | 167,815$82,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,454.61 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 46c | 128,236$58,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,575.05 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 70c | 104,169$73,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,112.36 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 104,154$67,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,708.71 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 69c | 86,866$60,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,866.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 46c | 76,155$35,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,076.59 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 35c | 71,904$24,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,047.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 59c | 67,344$39,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,710.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked No | 58c | 55,186$32,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,048.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 29c | 54,352$15,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,945.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 28c | 45,000$12,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,749.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 39c | 38,952$15,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,193.11 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 53c | 38,853$20,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,741.31 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 43c | 32,248$14,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,019.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed No | 52c | 31,974$16,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,589.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 70c | 30,000$21,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 36c | 26,808$9,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,081.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 26,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 34c | 25,999$8,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,159.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 59c | 25,000$14,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,330 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 29c | 24,567$7,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,152.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 8c | 23,449$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.44 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 62c | 22,385$13,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,774.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Yes | 74c | 21,213$15,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,488.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 13c | 20,000$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.08 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 40c | 19,516$7,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,813.89 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5a95backed Yes | 53c | 18,800$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,799.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 53c | 18,487$9,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,708.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 32c | 18,240$5,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,876.17 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 59c | 18,084$10,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,389.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d21…cf1cbacked No | 2c | 17,606$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 48c | 16,594$8,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,013.89 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 16,105$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.96 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 58c | 15,821$9,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,721.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 54c | 14,461$7,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,677.53 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes | 37c | 14,244$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,963.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 47c | 14,155$6,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,713.27 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 56c | 14,142$7,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,894.76 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 76c | 12,856$9,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.16 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 48c | 12,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…a9e8backed Yes | 56c | 11,618$6,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,169.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…84d8backed Yes | 37c | 11,146$4,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,013.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 10,860$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.14 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 1c | 10,604$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 46c | 10,600$4,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,829.99 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked No | 62c | 10,428$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,465.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 21c | 9,945$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.04 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 63c | 9,290$5,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,827.43 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…a311backed Yes | 36c | 9,073$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,845.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…48e4backed Yes | 76c | 8,977$6,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…d2ddbacked No | 64c | 8,520$5,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,430.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 43c | 8,500$3,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,624.99 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 33c | 8,159$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.22 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 11c | 7,894$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.64 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 62c | 7,893$4,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,974.89 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 52c | 7,625$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965.56 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 43c | 7,535$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.01 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 52c | 7,515$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 55c | 7,351$4,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 36c | 7,324$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.83 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 45c | 6,993$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,837.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 61c | 6,440$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 15c | 6,349$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.81 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 60c | 6,295$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 67c | 6,200$4,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,166 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 24c | 6,053$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.87 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 58c | 6,001$3,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked Yes | 74c | 6,000$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +320.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed Yes | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…d6b4backed Yes | 40c | 6,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…469cbacked Yes | 67c | 5,970$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 3c | 5,879$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.75 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 68c | 5,555$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.6 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed No | 40c | 5,355$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…f7f0backed Yes | 71c | 5,269$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 34c | 5,212$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 35c | 5,182$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 52c | 5,109$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,645.13 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 55c | 4,883$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 62c | 4,800$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.53 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 38c | 4,500$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.56 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 67c | 4,414$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.02 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Yes | 37c | 4,401$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 39c | 4,385$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,171$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 11c | 4,033$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.13 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…0c62backed No | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.98 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 66c | 3,998$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 33c | 3,927$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.27 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…3b40backed Yes | 72c | 3,889$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 53c | 3,834$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…719fbacked Yes | 51c | 3,780$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 18c | 3,750$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.48 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 26c | 3,676$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.89 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?No won
- Will there be No Shutdown?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.