Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150c3533d57741847fbdc0ec3099ec4338ed7bc8f70050fd9d4c6ac665feea74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,012,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $862,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,012,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 7c | 64,484$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.85 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 49,318$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.34 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 0c | 39,436$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…38e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…abafbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed Yes | 0c | 19,620$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,532$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 16,849$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.62 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…9e93backed Yes | 3c | 15,139$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9552…c8b5backed Yes | 7c | 13,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,976$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5526…7870backed Yes | 0c | 10,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +315.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…9f2cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,683$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,489$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13e…7c59backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…5e01backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 9,217$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.52 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7519backed Yes | 15c | 9,137$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,710$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 9c | 8,390$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,121$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,743$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 5c | 7,351$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,098$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 6c | 6,913$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.81 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 6,907$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…1e2abacked Yes | 4c | 5,929$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,728$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.66 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,381$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…442fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,094$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Yes | 1c | 4,110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…0121backed Yes | 7c | 4,079$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 5c | 3,988$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…b5a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,731$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 8c | 3,576$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…af73backed Yes | 3c | 3,445$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…7457backed Yes | 2c | 3,112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,957$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…b6afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1e…ace1backed Yes | 0c | 2,566$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb78…d07ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,566$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 5c | 2,477$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 2,336$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 15c | 2,333$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…40d5backed Yes | 8c | 2,296$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,269$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 6c | 2,210$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,523$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…0c34backed Yes | 8c | 1,278$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 4c | 1,177$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 1,167$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,162$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…e150backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…d1acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 14c | 1,030$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,017$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…82b7backed Yes | 9c | 1,005$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 999.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 969.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…af5abacked Yes | 3c | 948.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 8c | 888.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…42e3backed Yes | 1c | 869$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…ede3backed Yes | 3c | 862.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…13c3backed Yes | 15c | 860$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edf…275fbacked Yes | 13c | 786.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 14c | 740$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…437dbacked Yes | 2c | 657.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 8c | 650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…baacbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 603$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 585.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…3fafbacked Yes | 3c | 559.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 3c | 450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…641fbacked Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…e8f1backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?No won
- Will there be No Shutdown?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.