Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df0f9131944410c596a5ec62c3c19d2dde36d97002e9a236ea5323ffe1a9be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,196,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,110,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,196,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 99,386$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.78 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 5c | 65,892$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…3c05backed Yes | 2c | 45,366$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 23c | 32,740$7,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,379.89 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…a9e8backed No | 79c | 31,228$24,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,708.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 30,550$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…0611backed Yes | 0c | 30,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed No | 77c | 21,796$16,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,907.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 19,447$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.08 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 7c | 19,037$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 20c | 14,500$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.77 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 5c | 14,380$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…9e93backed Yes | 28c | 13,060$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 3c | 12,131$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.34 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 4c | 11,578$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 8,874$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.44 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 10c | 7,624$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.92 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 13c | 7,351$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 1c | 7,017$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 6,417$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 6,333$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 19c | 5,285$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.41 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.34 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed4…ff24backed No | 79c | 4,967$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 3c | 4,712$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…4b67backed Yes | 8c | 4,667$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 18c | 4,580$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,576$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…40d5backed Yes | 12c | 4,276$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,079$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…dc65backed Yes | 3c | 3,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…3b83backed Yes | 2c | 3,610$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 79c | 3,500$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…2dd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 3,111$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…65dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 2,724$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,706$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 57c | 2,691$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.79 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,643$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.04 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 26c | 2,564$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.61 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 27c | 2,522$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.03 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…af73backed Yes | 20c | 2,503$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 7c | 2,483$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec5…b8f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,449$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…9ae5backed Yes | 2c | 2,390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 10c | 2,221$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a2cbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…25b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,966$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,937$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…38f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 4c | 1,827$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 4c | 1,735$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed Yes | 8c | 1,724$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,603$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207d…7a98backed Yes | 5c | 1,568$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…08b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,518$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…314cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,490$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Yes | 17c | 1,471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,449$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 72c | 1,442$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.75 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…d4f3backed No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,348$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc719…2994backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,213$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…4c95backed Yes | 3c | 1,208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Yes | 4c | 1,162$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c90…029cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,147$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…29e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 1,134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…51e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…f1fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…5f1fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,082$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 18c | 1,030$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…8501backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…b8c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?No won
- Will there be No Shutdown?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.