TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa97c…55b2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+300%+$90
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+316.7%+$158.33
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
US strikes Yemen by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel strikes Iran by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+300%+$60
All 13 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,647.01
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Solana all time high by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Bitcoin above $114K on September 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sabrina Carpenter say "Trump" during SNL appearance on October 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+900%+$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.