AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5593a049d555a27b847c202bdb25da880f6916f81ded33add390f324d11c449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $392,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 19,632$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.03 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…ad1bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,409$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…b9c0backed Yes | 1c | 13,560$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7213…c4d1backed Yes | 9c | 11,225$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…d9fbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 9,377$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.48 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,013$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…b4debacked Yes | 3c | 8,652$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 2c | 7,459$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…5206backed Yes | 1c | 7,405$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f927backed Yes | 0c | 6,146$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 5,407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 4c | 5,275$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 0c | 4,684$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…98debacked Yes | 1c | 4,645$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 4c | 4,521$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,384$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 3,516$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 3c | 3,190$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…484ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,791$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,762$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,362$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…2e9ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…7975backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9746…c31cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,991$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,870$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…4d4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,735$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2b…403bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,603$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…c8e2backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…33c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,473$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,360$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a94cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…2996backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…47e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,077$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…049cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,060$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…f7c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8df…dce7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc0…8126backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…b2a0backed Yes | 3c | 993.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c012backed Yes | 2c | 854.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fea…8eabbacked Yes | 50c | 776.46$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…ab6abacked Yes | 3c | 740.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…1424backed Yes | 4c | 723.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c63…a139backed Yes | 2c | 685.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 680.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 652$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c4…5f3bbacked Yes | 10c | 639.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…a0f7backed No | 3c | 557.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +392.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…fff0backed Yes | 3c | 505.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…7c5cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 52c | 385.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 13c | 364.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…9c6abacked Yes | 9c | 335.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 15c | 325.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 246.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…8bc4backed Yes | 5c | 200.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…b149backed Yes | 8c | 181.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddf…8b77backed Yes | 25c | 141.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed No | 52c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 58.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…bdf6backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.