AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc203a5aeb220964b104d489126eaad8cc8cb157a64d2066b2c177cf2d643cdad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked No | 8c | 21,796$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 5c | 21,677$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 11c | 14,906$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed No | 1c | 12,627$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 7c | 12,100$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed No | 5c | 11,434$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.63 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 2c | 7,535$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 12c | 6,373$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 3c | 5,716$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed No | 6c | 3,520$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bc…d5f1backed No | 10c | 3,200$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,053$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 4c | 2,301$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 1c | 2,131$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked No | 5c | 2,060$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,968$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed No | 7c | 1,906$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 1,753$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 5c | 1,750$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…045abacked No | 11c | 1,733$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 2c | 1,627$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 1c | 1,622$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,518$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…e1fcbacked No | 8c | 1,330$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 1,257$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,173$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 5c | 1,094$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 6c | 913.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 906.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 12c | 903.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed No | 6c | 899.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 859.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed No | 2c | 827.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…2042backed No | 11c | 779.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 758.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 3c | 672.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed No | 6c | 666.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa653…444ebacked No | 9c | 616.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df3…5b8ebacked No | 9c | 579.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked No | 8c | 566.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed No | 7c | 563.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 7c | 538.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…5242backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…793ebacked No | 11c | 499$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 5c | 490.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked No | 6c | 483.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…8303backed No | 4c | 475.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba7…ab1fbacked No | 11c | 445.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 442.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…3f30backed No | 7c | 439.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…15ebbacked No | 12c | 427.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…c757backed No | 10c | 419.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…2587backed No | 7c | 418.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…997fbacked No | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked No | 5c | 410.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…709fbacked No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…8bedbacked No | 5c | 399.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 6c | 370$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…2ca4backed No | 6c | 353.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b3…e4bbbacked No | 4c | 351.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…6b54backed No | 6c | 336.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 6c | 335.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…f975backed No | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…3857backed No | 6c | 315.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 303.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed No | 6c | 299.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…c33cbacked No | 7c | 285.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…2eb1backed No | 7c | 274.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…1e95backed No | 5c | 260.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 6c | 253.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…4301backed No | 14c | 250.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…a91ebacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…bbd6backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9f19backed No | 9c | 231.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed No | 6c | 226$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…ee70backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…5dbfbacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…e128backed No | 6c | 214.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…5323backed No | 5c | 200.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…add8backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked No | 7c | 196.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…09d2backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed No | 6c | 177.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…ebb8backed No | 11c | 152.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 8c | 127.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…8095backed No | 8c | 126.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.