AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0122c856c3dc5c124f69eb4352fd10b03bb97510c185d61af0003bd18d009f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $450,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked No | 12c | 24,873$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked No | 9c | 24,314$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…71d2backed No | 0c | 16,215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 1c | 14,753$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 12,631$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.92 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…ecf6backed No | 12c | 11,973$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 10c | 11,625$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 10,209$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed No | 11c | 9,492$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 7,197$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.8 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…cdcebacked No | 0c | 6,501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 6,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed No | 2c | 5,600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed No | 14c | 4,903$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…9b71backed No | 11c | 4,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…911ebacked No | 9c | 4,521$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed No | 11c | 4,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked No | 11c | 4,260$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 8c | 4,188$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…e8acbacked No | 12c | 3,999$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked No | 6c | 3,960$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 4c | 3,785$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 2c | 3,661$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 10c | 3,557$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 11c | 3,353$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…9d52backed No | 3c | 3,072$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 5c | 3,049$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked No | 9c | 2,801$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 2,793$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…1c52backed No | 1c | 2,665$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed No | 5c | 2,624$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 2,377$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 2,367$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.46 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 2,259$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed No | 10c | 2,188$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 5c | 2,123$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…2d9bbacked No | 10c | 2,077$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 9c | 2,008$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked No | 9c | 1,932$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 11c | 1,850$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…bab6backed No | 1c | 1,833$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 1,818$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…a23cbacked No | 10c | 1,794$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa055…7ffcbacked No | 7c | 1,774$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 6c | 1,706$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 1,704$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed No | 8c | 1,699$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8e77backed No | 6c | 1,638$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 1,608$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4815…b393backed No | 11c | 1,588$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,580$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 3c | 1,482$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…a3dbbacked No | 7c | 1,469$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,442$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 8c | 1,326$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed No | 8c | 1,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,251$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked No | 11c | 1,200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…6e5cbacked No | 11c | 1,143$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 7c | 1,100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…2b4bbacked No | 5c | 1,086$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed No | 6c | 1,040$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 4c | 1,036$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…6b14backed No | 10c | 1,035$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ff…015ebacked No | 10c | 1,019$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked No | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…992bbacked No | 10c | 999.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 8c | 987.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…0477backed No | 7c | 962.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed No | 8c | 957.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 6c | 949.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 11c | 907.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0adf…8718backed No | 9c | 903.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…8e03backed No | 5c | 885.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed No | 2c | 866.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…5323backed No | 8c | 782.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…4ff0backed No | 13c | 762.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…be79backed No | 9c | 760.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 4c | 752.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…9ecbbacked No | 13c | 728.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 3c | 726.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed No | 9c | 701.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed No | 8c | 677$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…13c8backed No | 7c | 652.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…a18ebacked No | 7c | 631.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…304ebacked No | 10c | 614$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…2f4dbacked No | 9c | 589.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…f3a4backed No | 10c | 588$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…9e95backed No | 11c | 566.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a54…fa41backed No | 8c | 550$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…445ebacked No | 8c | 547$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…33efbacked No | 9c | 545.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…8729backed No | 7c | 543$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…d380backed No | 10c | 535.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97aa…345cbacked No | 7c | 526.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e4…bebebacked No | 12c | 518.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.