AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc7d2919c23e00507e33848288f15fb3473e536bad6e94e355ae71e7e651ed0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $924,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $806,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $924,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed No | 3c | 42,540$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked No | 6c | 41,498$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 25c | 38,639$9,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,697.59 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 38,349$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.27 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…7d96backed Yes | 72c | 31,535$22,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,954.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked No | 9c | 30,000$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 77c | 24,249$18,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,526.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 2c | 23,405$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.22 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 20,621$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.67 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed No | 17c | 19,930$3,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 23c | 18,543$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 12c | 16,089$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.06 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed No | 1c | 13,570$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 11c | 13,318$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 80c | 13,101$10,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.95 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 11c | 12,791$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 9c | 12,100$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.8 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…0c00backed No | 37c | 11,100$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,086.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 27c | 10,592$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.46 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 3c | 8,183$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 17c | 7,000$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.42 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed No | 24c | 6,950$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…cf6bbacked No | 3c | 6,599$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed No | 4c | 6,534$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…26c8backed No | 19c | 5,474$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 4c | 5,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…119abacked No | 27c | 4,793$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 5c | 4,757$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 7c | 4,621$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.67 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 1c | 4,609$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed No | 8c | 4,182$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 16c | 4,000$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.49 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…cbabbacked No | 8c | 4,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 3,875$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.74 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed No | 4c | 3,800$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…901abacked No | 3c | 3,785$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 22c | 3,608$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.22 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…e477backed No | 3c | 3,513$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…2558backed Yes | 71c | 3,501$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 3c | 3,489$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 3,359$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 9c | 3,337$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 5c | 3,315$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 3,289$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 1c | 2,989$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed No | 4c | 2,778$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 19c | 2,600$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.56 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 31c | 2,450$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed No | 6c | 2,345$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed No | 5c | 2,311$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 2,267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…e435backed Yes | 71c | 2,120$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…7975backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 11c | 2,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.77 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 9c | 1,917$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.77 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,757$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 1,756$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed No | 1c | 1,593$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,582$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…e1fcbacked No | 3c | 1,572$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…005bbacked No | 7c | 1,559$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 5c | 1,555$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 65c | 1,541$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 1,504$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0adf…8718backed No | 2c | 1,484$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 12c | 1,421$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 3c | 1,417$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 1,361$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 1,350$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed No | 3c | 1,335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4a…25b2backed Yes | 76c | 1,321$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed No | 6c | 1,311$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…1c52backed No | 1c | 1,305$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed No | 7c | 1,300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed No | 2c | 1,252$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…5193backed No | 4c | 1,245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…2da4backed No | 5c | 1,231$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked No | 15c | 1,144$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 18c | 1,124$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa3…90d8backed No | 10c | 1,121$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…34bebacked No | 30c | 1,100$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad2…19d3backed No | 2c | 1,041$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…a595backed No | 10c | 1,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 11c | 1,021$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed No | 2c | 946.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 9c | 931.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…4d78backed No | 11c | 918.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…30d2backed No | 9c | 911.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked No | 25c | 879.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…62fcbacked Yes | 71c | 852.84$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 9c | 820$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 3c | 802.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 5c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…003dbacked No | 6c | 788.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 8c | 750.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b3…e4bbbacked No | 3c | 736.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 10c | 700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed No | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?this page
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?Yes won
- Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.