TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8feb…8908

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$105.47
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$66.64
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$808Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$808.32
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$108
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,402Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+41.7%+$585.31
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+27.8%+$27.17
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$497.42
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+40.6%+$61.21
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$133.8
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$172.86
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$64
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$69.6
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+59%+$65.93
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+51%+$439
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,925Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32.4%+$623.11
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+29.9%+$44.74
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$80
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.59
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$86
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$126
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+76.5%+$61.16
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+33%+$32.96
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+66.7%+$26.67
All 12 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$224.4
Will molodoy finish in the top 5 of the HLTV Top 20 Players of 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$175.5
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+100%+$50
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1)backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.6
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+233.3%+$52.5
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+334.8%+$57.75
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.75
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs FaZe (BO3)backed RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$51
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$450
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$500
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,681Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.9%+$1,926.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Discord IPO in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$270
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$54.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$640
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$183
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.