Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c6ee5f872dd23662fd8d94ec1a31eb54609ca3d75bc8880e575e8109a7e8f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 9c | 23,815$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…1b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 20,708$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…c3cbbacked Yes | 8c | 18,991$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 14,650$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.47 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 8c | 11,842$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,622$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,197$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.72 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 5,860$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.19 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e211backed Yes | 8c | 3,817$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 6c | 3,313$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,195$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 7c | 2,076$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…85febacked Yes | 6c | 1,680$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,629$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…074fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,494$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…f4e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,193$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…7d29backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…9e14backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1674…e771backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…881cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 8c | 962.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 9c | 875.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdd…b527backed Yes | 9c | 787.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…f8a3backed Yes | 7c | 703.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed Yes | 7c | 682.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 7c | 667.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 7c | 652.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…87ebbacked Yes | 9c | 609.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 7c | 590$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…a18fbacked Yes | 3c | 588.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 9c | 559.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 11c | 539.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked Yes | 10c | 518.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 7c | 499.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…08b3backed Yes | 7c | 483.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 8c | 451.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c92…d1ffbacked Yes | 7c | 440.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…467cbacked Yes | 6c | 412.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…1795backed Yes | 10c | 400.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…df1ebacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 7c | 399.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…3761backed Yes | 7c | 390.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…b971backed Yes | 7c | 390.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 6c | 388.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…2c6abacked Yes | 11c | 383.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…fa81backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 6c | 289.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd264…e540backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…87f7backed Yes | 7c | 280.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…a344backed Yes | 7c | 275.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…cc83backed Yes | 8c | 258.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Yes | 8c | 256.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…86fabacked Yes | 8c | 251.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…af89backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…bf7abacked Yes | 9c | 234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…5937backed Yes | 8c | 233.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…3642backed Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…8391backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…1129backed Yes | 12c | 216.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 216.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…a4c9backed Yes | 9c | 210.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…863dbacked Yes | 10c | 206.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…dfebbacked Yes | 12c | 205.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…47b2backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…2392backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f360backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…8901backed Yes | 13c | 196.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…f230backed Yes | 7c | 196.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…cb02backed Yes | 10c | 194.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…172bbacked Yes | 8c | 192.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7b5fbacked Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…df80backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…9246backed Yes | 8c | 176.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 7c | 173.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 9c | 173.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…964dbacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…4528backed Yes | 9c | 168.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…6481backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…dd9cbacked Yes | 8c | 165.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 6c | 156.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…7845backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…57cfbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…ca2fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…0acfbacked Yes | 10c | 141.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x394d…6d80backed Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb770…f5e9backed Yes | 8c | 135.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894c…246abacked Yes | 8c | 133.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…4d05backed Yes | 8c | 131.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…56c8backed Yes | 8c | 130.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…12febacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.