Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062237e4d72492aeffc91cc9c17d96e98b551e7184e91441450e310b324f9cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd1…5593backed Yes | 30c | 2,132$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 65c | 1,206$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.52 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…8d31backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…7231backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…f446backed Yes | 21c | 995$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 835.39$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…1c35backed No | 75c | 655$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 634.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…c1b7backed No | 79c | 545$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 28c | 484.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…3512backed No | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 422.09$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 28c | 352.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 349.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 65c | 344.44$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…2dafbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 77c | 276.66$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 78c | 260.41$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 42c | 238.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 23c | 219.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 21c | 217.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 26c | 203.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 75c | 201.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 67c | 198.78$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…d0f3backed Yes | 34c | 146.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 15c | 145.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 65c | 142$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 74c | 135.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 26c | 105.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 23c | 104.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…7b1abacked Yes | 34c | 95.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…beacbacked Yes | 29c | 80.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed No | 71c | 69.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 40c | 65.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 40c | 62.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…564abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed No | 73c | 55.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 39c | 51.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…03b1backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…0cc5backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 66c | 41.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 41c | 36.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 71c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…1bfbbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…76e8backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…7f50backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 58c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed No | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 70c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac2…26f6backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.