Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2741a7dbb82e22568d2ba947c9f5b175e8647f9611f7582a95ca70b333aa9087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 8,830$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 75c | 4,800$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,306$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 61c | 2,439$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.37 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 30c | 2,300$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed No | 70c | 1,621$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…52f0backed Yes | 71c | 1,402$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,207$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.89 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…caa8backed Yes | 24c | 965$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2440backed Yes | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 28c | 836.06$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 24c | 827.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…b73dbacked No | 76c | 740$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…c9f8backed Yes | 57c | 720$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…e886backed No | 78c | 715$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 713.76$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.84 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 22c | 630$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 42c | 599.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.96 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…ac87backed No | 43c | 555$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 43c | 516.53$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.83 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 47c | 432.5$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 28c | 425.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 42c | 399.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.97 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…c29cbacked Yes | 26c | 391.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes | 28c | 363.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…8b32backed Yes | 29c | 363.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 70c | 356.16$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed No | 65c | 350.21$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…f080backed No | 43c | 345.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7ad5backed Yes | 55c | 312.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed No | 44c | 305.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 34c | 289.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 68c | 288.88$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…ff30backed Yes | 57c | 280$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 72c | 265.95$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked No | 66c | 263.04$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…561bbacked No | 76c | 260$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 41c | 236.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 31c | 230$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 20c | 204.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 57c | 200.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 20c | 199.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 15c | 189$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 57c | 177$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…111abacked No | 78c | 175$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…d0a4backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…c61cbacked Yes | 38c | 140.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 78c | 127.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…1795backed Yes | 34c | 117.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 63c | 116$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8829…2478backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 25c | 108.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 37c | 106.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…02b9backed Yes | 37c | 102.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…0fdbbacked Yes | 46c | 101.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…7553backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…df1ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 41c | 91.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 86.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 60c | 86.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…2433backed No | 75c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes | 59c | 67.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…e573backed Yes | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…08f5backed Yes | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…0f48backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…e7c9backed Yes | 31c | 64.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 52c | 64.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…e5cbbacked No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d5…5dcbbacked Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked Yes | 59c | 50.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 49.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.