Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6caf6ec51a9529e3d5a17057a238176027c327750f5a3cf6f591693a55980d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 72c | 4,694$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.41 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 31c | 4,443$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 77c | 3,341$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.76 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 54c | 1,490$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.51 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…95b7backed Yes | 34c | 1,070$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…4b87backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…fc1abacked No | 62c | 1,000$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…8391backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…e6f2backed Yes | 40c | 995$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 968.03$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…54fabacked Yes | 35c | 855$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 52c | 852.06$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.06 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 74c | 800$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…bda8backed Yes | 38c | 725$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 69c | 721.66$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 79c | 670$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 37c | 663.16$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.04 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 47c | 613.42$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 42c | 590$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.04 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…990ebacked No | 74c | 585$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba1…a896backed Yes | 26c | 580$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…bee2backed No | 65c | 530$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…87e0backed No | 65c | 470$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 34c | 444.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…80dbbacked Yes | 26c | 420$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…9d63backed Yes | 26c | 399.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…1205backed Yes | 30c | 342$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 30c | 332$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 25c | 320.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 38c | 302.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 45c | 299.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…7de9backed Yes | 55c | 294.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…9226backed Yes | 25c | 282.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…9426backed No | 74c | 245$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…f021backed Yes | 31c | 196.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 52c | 191.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 8c | 175.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 34c | 174.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…e886backed No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…d91bbacked Yes | 48c | 169.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c2…7dbcbacked Yes | 38c | 155$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…7d7ebacked Yes | 54c | 151.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 36c | 138.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 45c | 134.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 77c | 129.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked No | 78c | 127.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 48c | 124.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7930backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…6209backed Yes | 34c | 116.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked Yes | 28c | 107.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 52c | 106.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 16c | 95.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 24c | 95.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 44c | 91.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…25a6backed Yes | 36c | 89.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…cf70backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 74c | 80.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…0f1dbacked Yes | 51c | 68.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 19c | 65.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 74c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27de…25a0backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…7251backed Yes | 33c | 59.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 45c | 48.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 48.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…f79fbacked Yes | 37c | 47.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…5810backed Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…fb0fbacked Yes | 53c | 35.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…9d97backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…6ffdbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 42c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 44c | 24.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked Yes | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.