Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16bb5a97c8d13e41b51dec9024d55f69a39736d4a0f8539bacc993470cb02f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,292$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 22c | 2,793$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,657$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.15 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…3512backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…e674backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…56edbacked Yes | 22c | 975$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…6789backed No | 77c | 855$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ea…76c1backed Yes | 19c | 825$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…52f0backed No | 71c | 703.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…9029backed No | 78c | 685$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 614.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 18c | 514.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 16c | 450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 71c | 376.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…f8a3backed Yes | 18c | 339.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 12c | 317.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…5506backed No | 78c | 310$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…09cdbacked No | 79c | 253.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…a18fbacked Yes | 12c | 241.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 22c | 195.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 28c | 179.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked No | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 25c | 145.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 73c | 137.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad32…be28backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 12c | 127.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 126.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 16c | 124.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…6f8ebacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 71c | 109.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 22c | 108.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…5810backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…e055backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 29c | 76.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 67c | 75.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17c…8c0dbacked Yes | 15c | 75.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 29c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…bb3cbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 34.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…3348backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +313.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…70aebacked No | 72c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…664dbacked No | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 73c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…2826backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…82d4backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…f9e9backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.