Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1f00f6ae8e4d525a4ab954fa0b7ad7d3696611211c5e4b4bba49757880787a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 61c | 1,681$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.04 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 30c | 1,390$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.58 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 38c | 1,064$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…f31cbacked No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 995.12$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…7231backed Yes | 22c | 995$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c2…7dbcbacked Yes | 37c | 995$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 59c | 835$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…5593backed Yes | 39c | 791.72$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 38c | 640.88$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 76c | 527$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…1cd7backed No | 78c | 510$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…1e22backed No | 78c | 490$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 36c | 389.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 48c | 300.23$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…8411backed Yes | 36c | 274.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 251.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 59c | 243.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 58c | 225$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 67c | 217.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes | 49c | 202.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 55c | 188.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 25c | 187.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 55c | 181.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked No | 64c | 156.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 64c | 155.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 153.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 62c | 153.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 53c | 149.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…3187backed Yes | 52c | 143.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked No | 73c | 131$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 24c | 129.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 75c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked No | 51c | 105.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…cc83backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…863dbacked Yes | 24c | 81.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 79.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked No | 69c | 72.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked No | 63c | 65.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 22c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…f17bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…ec73backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…6ffdbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 41c | 47.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…4a26backed No | 67c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…9f6cbacked Yes | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…e055backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb770…f5e9backed Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…1205backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ad…93fdbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…c0b8backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…b2e0backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.