TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc5a6…995c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
122
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT4734%16 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.84
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Austria leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.22
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+900%+$900
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+200%+$1,000
Spread: Germany (-2.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$35.69
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$10.88
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+88.5%+$141.55
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+241.8%+$60.44
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+81.1%+$81.09
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
All 18 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+109.2%+$54.62
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$47.5
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+1,175%+$235
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.3
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$191.99
Will Trump mention "South Park" by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$28.4
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will courts block Trump's travel ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump announce military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+166.7%+$25
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
LA curfew enacted by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$128.57
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+354.5%+$177.27
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid or Bitcoin all time high first?backed Bitcoin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$177.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Series of Poker – American winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.