TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,665,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,127,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,665,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No77c194,886$150,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,217.8419535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes21c136,336$29,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,114.752832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes13c130,000$16,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,479.1319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c1…b742backed Yes2c53,337$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes1c52,991$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecce…fdb4backed Yes2c49,330$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes4c47,546$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.891024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes0c41,713$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5117…d36fbacked Yes30c40,622$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x26a0…9217backed Yes4c38,132$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9220…8585backed Yes0c33,660$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes3c33,562$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.181513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ae…b624backed Yes4c33,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes14c30,679$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.574736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c30,048$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d0…bf76backed Yes27c26,748$7,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,257.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93cb…5288backed Yes3c23,696$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ee…0938backed Yes16c23,010$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,793.6280%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c21,427$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.278010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes27c20,794$5,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,533.075034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes23c20,130$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.5735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No74c20,000$14,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,203.875869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes5c19,037$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c9…9860backed Yes12c18,135$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c17,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes7c17,190$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes9c16,866$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.361513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfce…b7a5backed Yes7c16,333$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes10c16,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ba…835abacked Yes11c15,915$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c15,372$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No73c14,988$10,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.835662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes22c14,211$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,103.312626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6122backed Yes4c12,920$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3928…15e4backed No75c12,575$9,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.216100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Yes2c12,522$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No80c12,027$9,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.185444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2501…5a20backed Yes28c12,000$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…2556backed Yes4c11,811$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.092313%3 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes15c11,613$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes35c11,200$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92011554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes37c10,859$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb381…d0fbbacked No79c10,245$8,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes4c10,002$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e8…0d30backed Yes32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd2…d91ebacked No78c10,000$7,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.963060%18 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes1c9,998$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.05140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c9,661$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No76c9,155$6,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.691070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No76c9,107$6,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.816053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes36c8,279$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.2750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20cb…f655backed Yes6c8,092$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.71315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes11c7,939$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2990%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,708$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.791,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5204839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3eb…8d3ebacked No72c6,945$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.931080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes4c6,790$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c6,748$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.174010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb67…cb9bbacked Yes18c6,678$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c6,499$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No78c6,263$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.417652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes3c5,998$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2d…aef6backed Yes19c5,886$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes9c5,833$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.175955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes12c5,410$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.681333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No79c5,393$4,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.5955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes7c5,057$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes22c5,034$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.5111316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdc…49ffbacked No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…1293backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc60…95dfbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaab…aa2bbacked Yes2c4,862$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes25c4,632$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.09478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f3…a4e4backed Yes3c4,617$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…24e2backed Yes1c4,493$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x333d…0fbfbacked Yes2c4,489$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes20c4,473$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.3525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes9c4,430$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.925034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes27c4,416$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…52d3backed Yes1c4,299$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed No79c4,290$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.86560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes11c4,250$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4592…77aebacked Yes3c4,222$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes33c4,156$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.8612025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes8c4,026$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.968619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No76c4,020$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.244845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…b6a5backed Yes2c4,018$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0801330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+123%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7238…8275backed Yes2c4,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No76c3,988$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.753237.5%12 W · 20 L-11.2wins-0.35per pick72cpaid-50.3%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0xd18e…3535backed Yes1c3,879$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes29c3,781$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.7432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed Yes25c3,711$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.754165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes1c3,577$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No76c3,509$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.375156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd6b…d1cabacked Yes36c3,469$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc430…28ffbacked Yes27c3,446$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b98…df12backed No71c3,437$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No76c3,306$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.285554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.