TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,418,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,465,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,418,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes16c89,011$14,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,556.7535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c29,350$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.04659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf200…cf95backed Yes2c27,523$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c21,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c20,501$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c20,079$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.993748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes12c18,837$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.425824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes17c17,550$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.291198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c17,511$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.1323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c15,442$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.121,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes4c14,540$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7218425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x352f…586fbacked Yes6c14,538$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes2c14,282$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.72508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes6c13,391$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.25230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes10c13,308$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9467…1067backed Yes1c10,443$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a75…f947backed Yes1c10,087$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes8c9,729$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.281533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+110%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5578backed Yes8c9,319$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes15c8,528$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x988a…353fbacked Yes1c8,195$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No74c8,000$5,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1103839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ae…8eabbacked Yes0c6,596$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No78c6,528$5,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.62250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c6,476$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d18…913bbacked Yes1c5,800$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d3…7acbbacked Yes10c5,494$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae0…7ab7backed Yes1c5,485$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa86…2e0dbacked Yes4c5,222$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked Yes3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ff…6f07backed Yes5c4,431$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes19c4,393$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.472050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c4,340$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.398920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes9c4,124$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613215.6%5 W · 27 L-8.8wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-77.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8674…3219backed Yes9c4,087$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6428…88a6backed Yes4c4,052$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes10c3,953$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.281020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5714…119dbacked Yes18c3,865$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.011553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb40…3b47backed Yes1c3,586$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x677f…c336backed Yes17c3,334$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes11c3,186$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.552416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes9c3,000$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1590%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes17c3,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2575…e7e6backed Yes6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.993834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes16c2,792$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf110…edd1backed Yes2c2,587$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e4…bac0backed Yes1c2,583$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes6c2,556$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.88119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes4c2,446$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.751105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes12c2,186$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.141747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf30c…ddfbbacked No79c2,000$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.471952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c2,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes2c1,989$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a90…f319backed Yes12c1,918$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.121926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+104%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes10c1,856$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.931040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x455e…4f80backed No73c1,822$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4054…e6ccbacked Yes6c1,754$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7d…ed6abacked Yes30c1,693$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…52d3backed Yes2c1,670$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes14c1,637$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…fc98backed Yes1c1,563$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes3c1,547$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes7c1,522$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1d…555fbacked Yes2c1,398$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes2c1,389$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52a…6abebacked Yes12c1,389$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes6c1,382$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1837.2%6 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes1c1,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes13c1,330$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.871533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e41…5d74backed Yes6c1,250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1007…82bcbacked Yes20c1,238$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x284a…3310backed Yes2c1,218$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes1c1,201$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes3c1,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.553655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+16%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f8b…d95bbacked Yes12c1,100$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes10c1,087$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.111822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes7c1,086$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes23c1,081$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2774…a395backed Yes3c1,075$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2515…65e8backed Yes1c1,023$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d6…e1f4backed Yes1c1,014$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505d…7d62backed Yes4c1,008$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38439.3%4 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…6cf5backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes20c1,000$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes9c1,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8421…f760backed Yes2c963$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4be…2309backed Yes1c901.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.442222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes4c868.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.733417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc3…ec3cbacked Yes19c854.17$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes12c843.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c843.93$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes2c839.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c831.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.42910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes14c807.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.645819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03b7…cf78backed Yes3c759.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92a1…0c5dbacked Yes16c750.15$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.