Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ae315b3db2a759861a758f2448e80817f6558b5f76f02252e0a27a79f907b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,418,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,465,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,418,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 16c | 89,011$14,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,556.75 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 29,350$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.04 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf200…cf95backed Yes | 2c | 27,523$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 20,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,079$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 70c | 20,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 12c | 18,837$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.4 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 17c | 17,550$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.29 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 17,511$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.13 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 15,442$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,540$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.72 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…586fbacked Yes | 6c | 14,538$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 14,282$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.72 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 6c | 13,391$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 13,308$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.8 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…1067backed Yes | 1c | 10,443$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…f947backed Yes | 1c | 10,087$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 8c | 9,729$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +110%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…5578backed Yes | 8c | 9,319$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 15c | 8,528$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…353fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,195$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 74c | 8,000$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ae…8eabbacked Yes | 0c | 6,596$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 78c | 6,528$5,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 3c | 6,476$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…913bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…7acbbacked Yes | 10c | 5,494$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…7ab7backed Yes | 1c | 5,485$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…2e0dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,222$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…6f07backed Yes | 5c | 4,431$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 19c | 4,393$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.47 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,340$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.39 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 9c | 4,124$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…3219backed Yes | 9c | 4,087$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…88a6backed Yes | 4c | 4,052$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed Yes | 10c | 3,953$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…119dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,865$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3b47backed Yes | 1c | 3,586$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 17c | 3,334$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,186$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 2,792$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.6 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…edd1backed Yes | 2c | 2,587$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed Yes | 1c | 2,583$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 6c | 2,556$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 4c | 2,446$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,186$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked Yes | 2c | 1,989$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…f319backed Yes | 12c | 1,918$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +104%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,856$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…4f80backed No | 73c | 1,822$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4054…e6ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,754$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7d…ed6abacked Yes | 30c | 1,693$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…52d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,670$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,637$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.97 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…fc98backed Yes | 1c | 1,563$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 3c | 1,547$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes | 7c | 1,522$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…555fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 2c | 1,389$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…6abebacked Yes | 12c | 1,389$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 6c | 1,382$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 1c | 1,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 13c | 1,330$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…82bcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,238$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284a…3310backed Yes | 2c | 1,218$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,201$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…d95bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,087$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,086$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,081$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…a395backed Yes | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…65e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…e1f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…6cf5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…f760backed Yes | 2c | 963$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4be…2309backed Yes | 1c | 901.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 4c | 868.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc3…ec3cbacked Yes | 19c | 854.17$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes | 12c | 843.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 843.93$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 2c | 839.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 831.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 14c | 807.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 3c | 759.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…0c5dbacked Yes | 16c | 750.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.