TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,245,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,449,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,245,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47ff…6f07backed Yes4c70,549$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.1280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes9c59,126$5,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.6935123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes2c50,010$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.1610313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe571…949abacked Yes15c29,007$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes1c24,657$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.54508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes6c21,597$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.6425824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c21,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.421360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b2…5d0abacked Yes15c17,578$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes3c17,429$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.59527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c14,800$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c14,425$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.058010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c14,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c11,887$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.451,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes7c10,386$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e9…08e4backed Yes6c8,819$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes2c6,913$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.837810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a75…f947backed Yes0c5,788$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.15520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes0c5,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26310%0 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes8c5,490$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes4c5,012$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9732…def8backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes11c4,372$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes7c4,200$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.390%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…a452backed Yes3c3,838$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37c…fa84backed Yes0c3,688$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes1c3,408$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…fc98backed Yes0c3,401$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a26…9b20backed Yes0c3,226$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes4c3,189$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes3c3,054$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5714…119dbacked Yes11c3,000$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes4c2,839$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes8c2,290$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9e83…6257backed Yes1c2,285$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c2,161$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…6cf5backed Yes0c2,027$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed Yes10c2,020$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.73016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea5…80f7backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658d…b95dbacked Yes8c1,997$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes11c1,952$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9215561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes5c1,910$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes3c1,891$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes10c1,800$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.652326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf52a…6abebacked Yes6c1,730$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes12c1,724$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+110%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes8c1,693$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.388920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes2c1,692$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes9c1,683$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes7c1,615$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.081198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes7c1,531$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.15819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20cb…f655backed Yes4c1,500$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dfb…90e2backed Yes6c1,257$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1007…82bcbacked Yes10c1,228$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes11c1,226$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.631118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes10c1,219$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.447642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8421…f760backed Yes1c1,128$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed Yes3c1,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.273030%9 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c1,100$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes2c1,090$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57df…aef8backed Yes1c1,068$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8e…5352backed Yes5c1,064$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…52d3backed Yes1c1,061$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f8…f072backed Yes2c1,032$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55300%0 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4417…c795backed Yes1c1,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa663…438dbacked Yes5c998.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.952114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes5c921.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee5…7bf0backed Yes9c862.34$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.073342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Yes2c795.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x181c…c6cdbacked Yes2c747.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f5…998dbacked Yes7c735.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked Yes7c715.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.55425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes6c602.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff2…d6e4backed Yes2c601.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c538.69$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20b6…659abacked Yes10c500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca33…6680backed Yes4c459$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd636…c5dbbacked Yes5c415.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf148…45efbacked Yes6c330.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked Yes29c300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b33…11d0backed Yes8c253.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8d…a8c9backed Yes9c205.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa869…5b41backed Yes10c200.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa376…74d7backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8b…d95bbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes12c182.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…f294backed Yes15c180$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0061…548ebacked Yes11c175.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes9c162.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b40…e3c8backed Yes10c142.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d1…a2a6backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.